Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
114 FXUS65 KTWC 022055 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 155 PM MST Fri Oct 2 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy to windy east winds expected across much of southeastern Arizona through Monday. Temperatures through this period will be near to just below normal, with some warming by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... West coast ridging and a stalled upper level circulation over southern New Mexico will continue to drive a tightened surface pressure gradient and easterly winds across southeastern Arizona through Monday. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common with stronger winds on high terrain ridges exposed to east winds. Though the upper low begins to nudge east out of New Mexico on Sunday with the western ridge moving over the Four Corners, flow aloft will remain tight and Sunday`s winds may be the strongest in the period. Current guidance shows wind gusts exceeding 40 mph possible on Sunday, especially in the Gila River valley in Graham county and southern Cochise county. Temperatures into early next week will remain near to just below normal, with warm mornings as increased winds ward off normal radiational cooling. The building of the ridge next week will warm temperatures to near or just above normal by the middle of the week with another wave potentially bringing increased winds again late in the week. The forecast remains dry at this time, though southeastern Arizona may be on the periphery of a moisture feed from Hurricane Rachel next week. Current hurricane ensembles take the track too far to the west to worry about any notable impacts or even precipitation chances at this time, but a modest rise in precipitable water bringing cloud build-ups or a very slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm over high terrain can`t be ruled out early next week. && .AVIATION...Valid thru 04/00Z. SCT-BKN 5k-8k ft ceilings near and east of KFHU-KSAD through 03/03Z, otherwise mainly SKC. East surface winds will continue through the TAF period with wind speeds 16-23 kts and gusts 25-35 kts. A slight decrease in wind speeds possible after 03/06Z with an increase again after 03/14Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated easterly winds expected to continue through Monday across much of southeastern Arizona. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph likely, with ridge tops exposed to easterly flow seeing 40-50 mph gusts at times. Stronger winds in eastern areas such as Graham and Cochise counties possible on Sunday. Minimum relative humidity values will remain 30-40 percent in lower elevations and above 50 percent in high elevation terrain. Some drying possible by mid-week next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Edwards FIRE WEATHER...Edwards Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson