707
FXUS65 KTWC 182103 CCA
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Wed Jun 18 2025

...Corrected record high date on Thursday for Ajo...

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona this week. The hottest temperatures of 2025 are forecast to
occur on Thursday, with record or near record highs Thursday and
Friday. Expect breezy afternoon and early evening winds this
weekend. Moisture begins to increase over the weekend, resulting in
a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly
southeast of Tucson Saturday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very little change in the models versus yesterday.
High pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific will move over Arizona
on Thursday and then east into the mid Atlantic over the weekend as
a trough develops across the western United States. Troughing then
continues into early next week across the desert southwest, with the
high shifting westward mid to late next week.

The main story in the short term is the HOT temperatures through
Friday. Highs today will top out at 105-109 degrees from Tucson
westward and in the upper Gila River valley and between 100-105
degrees in the lower elevations of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties.
With the high nearly overhead on Thursday, we will experience the
hottest temperatures so far of 2025. Near record to record highs are
expected. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect from 10 am
Thursday through 9 pm Friday for all the lower elevations of
southeast Arizona. Extreme HeatRisk for portions of southeast
Arizona Thursday (including the Tucson Metro), with Major HeatRisk
Friday. NBM probabilities of 114+ degrees in Tucson remain at 75
percent Thursday, with 50 percent probabilities of 115 degrees and
25 percent of reaching 116 degrees. For more information on the
Extreme Heat Warning please refer to the PHXNPWTWC product.

As the high slides off to our east this weekend, high temperatures
lower to near normal by Sunday. The west coast trough will result in
elevated wind speeds and near critical fire weather conditions are
expected Friday afternoon (Graham, Greenlee and Cochise counties),
Saturday (areawide) and Sunday (mainly southeast of a Nogales to
Safford line). Winds will be southwest at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-
35 mph. Monsoonal moisture will try to move north from Mexico and
westward across New Mexico this weekend. However, the trough to our
west and southwest flow will keep this moisture from advancing very
far west across southeast Arizona. At this time, shower/thunderstorm
chances are mainly confined southeast of a Sierra Vista to Safford
line. The main thunderstorm concerns will be gusty outflow winds,
areas of blowing dust and lightning strikes sparking new wildfires.
The moisture will be fairly limited with this initial moisture push
so storms will be a mix of wet and dry.

As we move through next week and the upper high begins to shift back
westward, the moisture also shifts west across southeast Arizona.
Thunderstorm outflows will become important with how far west the
moisture advances and how quickly. At this time, there will be a
slight chance of thunderstorms as far west as Tucson next Tuesday
and Wednesday. Model PW values increase to around 1" during this
time, so any thunderstorms that do form will produce precipitation.
High temperatures will be right around normal all of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 20/00Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru 19/15Z. Aft 19/15Z, FEW-SCT clouds
at 10k-14k ft AGL primarily from KTUS eastward. WLY/NWLY SFC wind at
7-13 kts and gusts to around 20 kts thru 19/03Z. SFC wind variable
in direction and 10 kts or less between 19/03Z and 19/18Z. Aft
19/18Z, SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 8-14 kts and gusts to around 22 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions with near record to record
breaking temperatures Thursday and Friday. Wind speeds pick back up
again this weekend, with near critical conditions Friday afternoon
(Graham, Greenlee and Cochise counties), Saturday (areawide) and
Sunday (mainly southeast of a Nogales to Safford line). Expect
southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30-35 mph. Monsoonal
moisture will seep into far eastern areas along the International
Border and the New Mexico border for a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, mainly southeast of a Sierra
Vista to Safford line. Precipitation chances spread as far west as
Tucson early to mid next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

DATE                         Jun 19           Jun 20
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       114 115/2017     110 116/2017
AJO                       112 114/1968     105 119/2017
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         110 119/2016     103 118/2016
PICACHO PEAK              110 115/2016     105 115/2017
SAFFORD AG STATION        112 113/2021     110 112/2017
SIERRA VISTA FD           105 106/1989     101 110/2017
TOMBSTONE                 105 108/1989     102 110/2017
WILLCOX                   107 108/2017     105 112/2017
DOUGLAS                   106 109/2017     104 108/2017

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 9 PM MST Friday for
  AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

Zell

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