942
FXUS65 KTWC 081926
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1226 PM MST Mon Jun 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will remain around normal today,
warming 2 to 7 degrees above normal Tuesday into the weekend.
Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon. Increasing
moisture may start to bring slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar shows a few weak echoes east of Tucson with
a couple lightning strike along the AZ/NM border. Marginal mid-
level moisture is in place with PWAT values around 0.70 inches
from central Pima County eastward. Aloft a longwave trough
extends from the Pacific Northwest down to the west coast of
Baja. To the east an omega block is in place over the Midwest
with broad high pressure to the south extending from the west
Atlantic into Texas. The trough is likely lending some synoptic
scale support to the weak storms along with surface heating. Hi-
res guidance like the HREF shows a few weak storms late this
afternoon into the overnight hours east of Tucson. Its possible
this activity continues through tonight, although rainfall will
likely be negligible with the main threat being gusty outflow
winds. NBM PoPs were adjusted up for this afternoon and evening
to account for the current storms and possible overnight
activity.

Over the next couple days the upper air pattern will slowly
change as the broad area of high pressure moves westward and the
trough flattens out over the desert Southwest. Winds will be
breezy each afternoon this week and into the weekend. Today the
strongest winds will be likely be west of Tucson switching to
east of Tucson the rest of the week. Winds will be strong enough
to combine with low RH to create elevated fire weather
conditions through Thursday. With the ridge moving further west
temperatures increase above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, then
back to around normal Thursday and Friday as a trough moves
through Wyoming and Colorado and briefly nudges the ridge away.
Temps then warm back 3-7 degrees above normal this weekend.

At the same time ensembles show PWAT values steadily increasing
starting Thursday with mean PWAT values around an inch by the
weekend, but still a large spread around the mean. NBM has
increased PoPs slightly compared to 24 hours ago with slight
chances along the international border Thursday and Friday. This
weekend PoPs are 15-35 percent along the international border
and the White Mountains. Storms likely won`t be big rainers,
but will be capable of strong outflow winds and lightning.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z.
SCT-BKN cumulus clouds 10k-14k ft AGL from Tucson eastward
through most of the period. Weak isolated -TSRA will be possible
over Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise Counties this afternoon
through the overnight hours. Chances that an airport will be
impacted are low. Surface winds will be southwesterly 10-15 kts
with gusts to 20 kts through 09/02Z then light and terrain
driven overnight. Winds increase again Tuesday afternoon with
similar speeds to today. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds through the middle of the coming week
will be southwesterly (becoming west/northwest Wednesday) 12-18
mph each afternoon with gusts to 25-30 mph. Minimum relative
humidity values should remain fairly consistently 8-15 percent
across desert locations and 12-18 percent in the mountains, with
the potential for increasing relative humidity Friday into next
weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible each
afternoon through Thursday, especially through the valleys of
Graham county where winds should be a bit stronger.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Hardin

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