825
FXUS65 KTWC 311952
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1252 PM MST Fri Jul 31 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Limited thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening
with only locales along the NM border and SE Cochise County seeing
isolated thunderstorms. Storm coverage and chances increasing
Saturday east of Tucson, but especially ramp up next week with a
more active pattern. High temperatures will be 8-15 degrees above
normal through Monday with gradual modest cooling thereafter. The
Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies across the forecast area early this
afternoon as the mid/upper level high pressure resulting in extreme
heat across the region is now located across east-central Arizona.
There is enough moisture under the high for some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the White Mountains and these have been
developing in the past hour or two. Given lack of steering flow up
there, the bulk of the activity will remain over the higher terrain
but some outflows pushing southward will help result in some
isolated storms later this afternoon and evening across Graham and
Cochise Counties. Main concern is gusty winds, though the strongest
cores will have some locally heavy downpours. We also can`t rule out
a stray storm or two along the Int`l border in Santa Cruz County
later this evening as the steering flow is a bit better along the
Int`l border and can result in a few storms pushing in from adjacent
Cochise County.

The extreme heat will continue to be the main weather story this
weekend and with Monday high temperatures now nudging slightly
higher, there is enough of our forecast area under major HeatRisk to
justify an extension of the warning through Monday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage on Saturday
afternoon/evening is expected east of Tucson with the best chances
closer to the AZ/NM border. SPC continues to highlight this area for
a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms due to the wind threat as
the 12Z HREF has greater than 10% 40-km neighborhood probabilities
of wind gusts of 50 kts or greater.

A generally more active period for southeast Arizona may start as
early as Sunday, but much more likely by Monday and continuing
through the rest of next week as a favorable easterly to
northeasterly pattern sets up with the strong high pressure
gradually shifting into northern Arizona. With adequate moisture in
our area and some embedded disturbances in the easterly flow (still
a bit hard to time this far out), some of these days look to be
quite active. The general flavor will be more of a severe
thunderstorm threat early in the week, transitioning to a hybrid
severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threat as the week
progresses.

Temperatures from Tuesday onward lower to about 3 to 6 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
FEW-SCT 8k-12k ft AGL for much of the period. Isolated TSRA
will be possible 31/21Z-01/06Z with KDUG terminal having the best
chance to be impacted by TSRA, KOLS could see TSRA as well this
evening, but confidence too low ton include in TAF. Gusty SFC winds
near TSRA with wind gusts up to 35 kts will be possible. SFC winds
NWLY 8-12 kts thru 01/03Z with occasional gusts up to 25 kts.
Otherwise, SFC winds light and variable under 10 kts thereafter thru
01/18Z. WLY/NWLY winds 8-12 kts then resume thru the end of the
valid period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures will remain well above normal through monday with
with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect. Expect daily chances of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly south and
east of Tucson through the weekend with some day to day variability.
Storm coverage and chances are expected to increase in coverage next
week with an active period in store. Any thunderstorm will bring a
threat of severe, erratic wind gusts as well as brief heavy rainfall
and an isolated threat of flash flooding. Min RH values will be 10-
20 percent through Saturday then 15-30 percent Sunday into next
week. Winds will be terrain driven at 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 2 DAYS

DATE                         Jul 31           Aug 01
                           FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       111  111 / 1986   111  112 / 1993
AJO                       111  117 / 1995   111  114 / 1972
KITT PEAK                  91   89 / 1995    92   96 / 2021
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         110  114 / 1986   111  113 / 1997
PICACHO PEAK              107  114 / 1996   111  114 / 1993
SAFFORD AG STATION        110  108 / 1995   109  108 / 1986
SIERRA VISTA FD           103  104 / 2020   100  103 / 2020
TOMBSTONE                 102  106 / 2020   100  105 / 1944
WILLCOX                   106  107 / 2020   103  108 / 2020

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES DAYS 3 & 4

DATE                           Aug 02           Aug 03
                            FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       111  110 / 1918   108  110 / 1994
AJO                       112  115 / 1972   108  115 / 2021
KITT PEAK                  91   91 / 1995    88   90 / 1995
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         110  113 / 1994   106  114 / 1998
PICACHO PEAK              111  111 / 1995   109  112 / 1998
SAFFORD AG STATION        105  108 / 2024   105  107 / 2025
SIERRA VISTA FD            98  103 / 2020    97  100 / 1995
TOMBSTONE                  99  105 / 1944    98  105 / 1995
WILLCOX                   102  104 / 1944   102  105 / 1944

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$


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