236
FXUS65 KTWC 292011
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
111 PM MST Mon Sep 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this week. High
temperatures near to slightly above normal through Tuesday, warming
to levels about 5 degrees above normal by Thursday and Friday before
cooling back down closer to near normal levels this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies this afternoon
with some cumulus cloud development especially over the Sky Islands
and near the NM border. Shortwave ridging continues to build into
the area with increasing drier air and subsidence aloft. Can`t
completely rule out a brief shower along the immediate AZ/NM border
for a few hours this afternoon but essentially everyone will remain
dry today.

A quiet end to the month and start to October with westerly flow
aloft initially transitioning into broad ridging for the second half
of the work week. This will result in warming temperatures with
highs topping out about 5 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday.
Mornings will still feel comfortable with lows in the mid to upper
60s from Tucson westward and mid 50s to lower 60s in the valleys
south and east of Tucson. Troughing will approach the area from the
west to northwest this weekend and result in an uptick in breezes
Saturday with highs dropping back down a few degrees this weekend,
closer to normal levels for this time of year. At this point, this
system looks dry as it moves through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z.
SKC to SCT 8k-10k ft AGL thru valid pd. SFC winds SWLY/WLY 6-13 kts
thru 30/04Z and again aft 30/18Z. SFC winds will be variable and
terrain driven less than 10 kts during other times of the valid
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions prevail this week across southeast
Arizona. Winds generally south to southwest through this week with
speeds up to 15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph. Minimum RHs between
25-35 percent this afternoon will lower through the week as a drier
airmass becomes more established across Southeast Arizona, lowering
to 15-25 percent the second half of the work week. Temperatures will
near to just slightly above normal through Tuesday, warming to above
normal levels the second half of the work week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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