413
FXUS65 KTWC 150932
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
232 AM MST Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal for the next
week. Today will be a more active monsoon day, then typical day
to day variability thereafter through the rest of the week.
Showers and thunderstorm with the potential for heavy rainfall
will be present, especially from Tucson to the south and southeast
today and Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- An average to above average grade monsoon day is forecast for
  today. Heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding is the
  primary threat, mainly for eastern Pima (including Tucson),
  Santa Cruz, and Cochise Counties.

- Monsoon activity Wednesday and Thursday will likely depend on
  what happens the previous day. Uncertainty in the forecast
  overall is high.

- Temperatures will generally be within a few degrees of normal,
  with low to moderate HeatRisk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overnight satellite imagery shows that we are currently in a Type
II monsoon configuration, with upper level high centered over
southern Nevada and northeast flow aloft over our forecast area.
While normally this would be a favorable pattern for thunderstorms
over forecast area, the best dynamics and instability stayed to
our south yesterday. There is still scattered residual cloud cover
from the showers that were able to develop yesterday.

A more active pattern is still shaping up for today as the upper
high shifts back toward the Four Corners region...a Type I
monsoon configuration. Flow should be much weaker today than
yesterday, which would suggest that any storms that develop will
be slow moving. With abundant moisture, the primary threat today
will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. The
HREF is generally in agreement that storms today should be
starting up during the early afternoon, with some potential for
thunderstorms continuing into the overnight hours. The best
potential for flash flooding should be over eastern Pima, Santa
Cruz, and Cochise Counties. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued
for these locations. HREF is showing a roughly 20 percent chance
of exceeding 2" of rain with the most intense of these storms.

Forecasts for Wednesday and Thursday will likely be tricky this
far out, as the weather will depend on what happens the previous
day. At this stage, the forecast reflects average grade monsoon
days, but with a high degree of uncertainty. A drier period is
likely to set in at some point in the next week, but it is highly
uncertain when this will be. This is because there is low
predictability in the evolution of a closed upper low off the Baja
coast over the next several days.

There will be some day to day variability in high temperatures
over the next week, but generally expect them to be within a few
degrees of normal for this time of year.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
SCT-BKN 7-12k ft AGL through the period. Another round of SCT
TSRA/SHRA is expected aft 15/19Z for much of southeast Arizona.
Wind gusts of 40-50 kts with 1-3SM VSBY in BLDU are possible with
the thunderstorms today, especially near KSAD. Otherwise, SFC
winds mainly less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A more active monsoon pattern this week. Deeper atmospheric
moisture moving into the will increase the potential for heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially today.
Temperatures will remain above normal through today, then drop
back down to near or slightly below normal by mid week. Winds will
remain westerly from 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts at or above
25 mph. Afternoon RH values in the low lying areas will be
between 10-15% this afternoon, then 20-30% through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MST today through this evening for
AZZ502>504-507-508-512>515.

&&

$$

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