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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
883 FXUS65 KTWC 250910 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 210 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a daily chance of thunderstorms into next week. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will heat up a few degrees by the middle of the week as high pressure builds overhead. Looking into July, the pattern is favoring active weather as additional moisture will likely move into the area. && .DISCUSSION...Merging outflows were able to take advantage of remnant elevated CAPE over lower elevations from Tucson westward over the past several hours. In addition, a convective complex just south of the border is pushing additional debris could with embedded showers up from the south this morning. Trends will continue to slowly weaken through early morning hours. A remnant MCV will drift north across the area today, with some subsidence in it`s wake. We`ll also start to see some mid level warming as the high center reconsolidates near the area over the next 36 hours. With this in mind, overall we`re expecting fewer storms around as the atmosphere recovers into mid and late afternoon hours. We may be watching another strong complex in northwest Mexico try to push an outflow up from the south and southeast in the evening hours. With the ridge strengthening, we`ll heat up a few degrees but should have enough moisture to take the edge off and avoid any heat headlines. As larger scale features become less favorable for moisture import, we`re getting nice reinforcement from active complexes sending deep outflows up from Sonora and northwest Chihuahua. Meanwhile we`re easily maintaining dewpoints in the 60s with precipitable water values ranging from about 1.4 inches east to 1.9 inches west. Keep an eye out for additional (but more modest) gulf surge activity by this weekend. && .AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z. SCT SHRA with ISOLD TSRA through 25/13Z. SCT TSRA will develop again after 25/20Z. Brief MVFR conditions possible with storms. Winds generally remain below 10 kts through the forecast period, except for gusty outflow winds from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms. Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible. Stronger erratic outflows with some thunderstorms. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson