332
FXUS65 KTWC 251623
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
923 AM MST Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon and evening chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible daily through Friday in eastern
locations, mainly closer to the New Mexico border. Temperatures
become hotter this weekend as conditions dry out.

&&

.UPDATE...Radar imagery, as of 915 am, showed any isolated
showers/virga that was occurring earlier this morning across
southern Graham county and northern Cochise county has dissipated
or moved into NM. The 25/12z upper air plot showed upper trof to
our west with SW flow aloft over the area. The deeper moisture
plume continues across NM with our eastern zones on the western
edge of moisture. Isolated storms this afternoon across the
eastern zones with the main threat being gusty winds, blowing dust
and very isolated heavy rain. One area that both UofA WRF runs of
GFS/HRRR are hitting with the potential for heavy rain is the
Chiricahua mtns. Highs today right around normal. See discussion
below for further details in the 7-day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper trough over southern California into
western Arizona this morning will lift northeast into the central
Rockies by the end of today, nudging the moisture field eastward.
This will keep precipitable water values exceeding one inch mostly
in and east of Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee counties. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms should impact these
counties again this afternoon and evening, though likely with a
bit less coverage than yesterday. Modeled precipitable water and
CAPE values for this afternoon are down from yesterday, which will
lower the threat for any strong wind gusts, blowing dust, and
isolated flooding. An isolated threat for a stronger wind gust
with some blowing dust can`t be ruled out but otherwise convection
today should remain on the tamer side. High temperatures will be
right around to a few degrees below normal across southeastern
Arizona.

With less of a synoptic influence on the previous moisture feed
out east, moisture should see a drying trend over the coming days
with just lingering shower/thunderstorm chances in eastern
locations Thursday and Friday. By this weekend precipitation
chances fully drop off as the upper level pattern undergoes height
rises and ridging. This will bring high temperatures back above
normal by Sunday with Moderate HeatRisk returning to the region.

Attention turns to the end of the forecast period early to middle
of next week as the center of the upper high should drift towards
the Four Corners and begin to draw monsoon moisture into
southeastern Arizona. Minor differences in ensemble members exist
regarding timing, with the current probabilistic trend being
increasing thunderstorm chances as early as Monday but more likely
arriving by next Wednesday to Thursday. It`s within the middle to
late next week period where extended range tools are showing
increasing severe thunderstorm probabilities (NSSL GEFS Machine
Learning severe probabilities, CIPS extended analogs) and the
Climate Prediction Center has introduced the risk of heavy
rainfall and flooding to southeastern Arizona in their 8-14 day
hazards outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 9k-13k feet through the forecast period
especially east of KTUS-KOLS. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms after 25/18Z near and east of KSAD-KFHU diminishing
after 25/03Z, though lingering longer near and east of KDUG.
Isolated gusts up to 40 kts with stronger cells. Otherwise winds
light and under 12 kts with an occasional afternoon gust up to 20
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to below normal highs again today.
Minimum relative humidity values above 20 percent through much of
Cochise, Greenlee, and southern Graham counties. Otherwise 6-12
percent elsewhere. Isolated to scattered light showers and a few
thunderstorms in areas of increased moisture today, especially
near the New Mexico border. Winds generally light and under 15 mph
with isolated gusts up to 45 mph under any thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening. Similar conditions through Friday, then
drier and becoming hotter this weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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