037
FXUS65 KTWC 052054
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
154 PM MST Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures remain near normal today, then will
see a warming trend through the upcoming work week. Slight
chances for precipitation arrive by late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Troughing is in place over the western U.S. with a
broad area of high pressure extending from Texas into the
Atlantic. The trough will stay in place through early Tuesday then
flattens out and moves eastward. At the same time the high will
move westward becoming centered somewhere over Texas by the middle
of the week. This will result in seasonal temperatures today then
a warmup through the work week thanks to the proximity of the
ridge. Starting Monday highs will be 4-8 degrees above normal
into the start of next weekend.

In the tropics tropical storm Priscilla is about 480 miles south
of Cabo and is expected to move north northwest over the next few
days off the west coast of Baja California. After Wednesday there
is considerable uncertainty with its track (whether it stays out
to sea or turns east towards Baja California), but high
confidence that southerly mid-level winds will advect tropical
moisture into southern Arizona starting as early as Wednesday.
PWAT values are expected to be around 200 percent of normal
Thursday into the weekend. Meanwhile in the upper levels high
pressure becomes centered over northern Mexico and a closed low
will be over the Pacific Northwest. Ensembles have brought the low
a little further south Friday and Saturday compared to 24 hours
ago, but still lots of uncertainty with its placement. Because of
the uncertainty in synoptic scale forcing PoPs are generally 20-35
percent Friday into Saturday with the best chances in the
mountains. Ensembles hint that early next week could have better
chances as another trough potentially takes a more southerly
route. Ensembles also keep the anomalous moisture in place
through the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
SKC through the period. Surface winds will be southwesterly 10-15
knots with gusts 20 to 30 knots through 06/02Z, mainly in
southern locations including KOLS-KDUG-KALK. Lighter 8-13 knot
winds to the north including KTUS and KSAD. Overnight winds will
be variable less than 8 kts becoming southwest 5-10 kts Monday
afternon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum relative humidities mainly 12-20 percent
through Tuesday. Breezy winds of 12-18 mph with gusts to 30 mph
mainly through Santa Cruz and southern Cochise counties, with
lighter winds to the north today. Winds mainly on the lighter
side to start the work week, with potentially gusty southeasterly
winds in the Gila River Valley Wednesday. A push of moisture
should begin to bring up minimum relative humidities through the
second half of the week, however rain chances remain low through
the remainder of the work week becoming 15-30 percent next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hardin

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