Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
995 FXUS65 KTWC 032124 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 224 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm conditions will prevail this week with high temperatures running 4 to 9 degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION...Scattered high wispy cirrus clouds are floating overhead today with temperatures expected to approach 90 degrees. The NBM probability of reaching 90 degrees for Tucson today is 65 percent. The record high temperature at Tucson International Airport today is 93 degrees and the normal high is only 80 degrees, so we are running nearly 10 degrees above normal today. This might seem like an abnormally warm day for early November, but those who are particularly sensitive to heat will need to use caution today and maintain adequate cooling and hydration. Even though high temperatures will remain above normal with minor HeatRisk this week, we will see a degree or two of cooling each day through Saturday as the upper level ridge tends to flatten out before returning and becoming much more amplified Sunday into next week. The main forecast challenge going forward is actually overnight minimum temperatures. Guidance continues to be lean or be noticeably warmer than observed overnight lows, especially for Nogales, Douglas, Saint David, and Willcox where cold air typically drains and settles on calm, clear fall evenings. While the significance of the temperature differences between the NBM forecast minimum temperatures and observed minimum temperatures may seem small, the large temperature fluctuations between the daytime high temperatures and overnight low temperatures in the Sonoran Desert are inevitably impactful and even dangerous to humans, pets, and even property. Because of these considerations, I have opted to nudge minimum temperatures tonight to the NBM 25th percentile and locally even to the 10th percentile. The forecast becomes a bit more tricky on Wednesday night into Thursday morning when the aforementioned ridge of high pressure has flattened. With even the NBM 10th percentile guidance still leaning bit warm, my current thinking is that the probability for freezing temperatures on Thursday morning may be a bit underrepresented by the NBM. The 10th percentile minimum temperature at Willcox on Thursday morning is 35 degrees, so if the trend continues and overnight lows remain cooler than the 10th percentile, then my hunch is we could see locally freezing temperatures on Thursday morning. While I do not have the confidence to issue a Freeze Watch at this time, it will be important for the agricultural industry to closely monitor the latest forecast trends. && .AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z. SCT to BKN cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through 04/18Z. SFC winds terrain and diurnally driven less than 10 kts. Aviation Discussion Not Updated for TAF Amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warm conditions for the next 7 days with afternoon high temperatures mostly 4 to 9 degrees above normal. Minimum RH values over the next week generally in the 12-22 percent range. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DVS Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson