011
FXUS65 KTWC 161525
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
825 AM MST Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona through the week with another round of extreme heat late
this week. Temperatures will generally be 5 to 12 degrees above
normal this week with a bit more cooling next weekend.  Increased
breezes early in the week due to a passing weather system.

&&


.UPDATE...Two main points for today will be heat follow by
breezes.

High pressure center is located over the southeastern corner of
the state from water vapor imagery. This will keep temperatures
hot for the rest of the day. Morning lows were in the mid 70s
Tucson west and upper 60s east of Tucson. Thus, easily way to warm
up under these mostly clear skies and creating Major Risk for Heat.
Extreme Heat Warning in effect through 8pm this evening.

A Pacific trough will be moving inland through the rest of the
day. This will pick up winds to breezy category by the afternoon
and peaking in the early evening. Max gusts around 25 to 30 mph
especially within the Gila River Valley to New Mexico state line
and eastern Cochise County. Near to locally critical fire weather
concerns due to the hot, dry, and breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed a few mid
level clouds east of Tucson otherwise it was clear across SE AZ.
The push of moisture that occurred yesterday, where PW values were
up to 0.90" across Cochise county and less to a few frisky virga
shafts that produced gusty winds and blowing dust, has been
pushed out of the area in the past 6 hours with PW values down to
around 0.50".

The main story this week will be the heat with Extreme Heat
Warning in effect today and an Extreme Heat Watch in effect for
Thursday and Friday. Thursday has the potential to be a few
degrees hotter than yesterday with the latest NBM probabilities
for Tucson: 50% chance for 113 degrees, 25% chance for 114
degrees, 19% chance for 115 degrees and 4% chance for 116 degrees.
GFS/EC thickness values on Thursday are just shy of the values
that occurred back in June 2017 (19th-21st) when Tucson hit 115,
116 and 115 over that 3-day period.

A weather system passing by to our north will bring slightly
cooler temperatures Tue/Wed with highs just below heat warning
criteria. Gusty afternoon NW winds expected today and Tuesday
with highest gusts likely down the Gila River valley where a few
places will be near critical fire weather conditions. Check the
fire weather section below.

Next weekend into Monday will see a gradual increase in PW values,
per ensembles, especially S/SE of Tucson. PoPs, mainly across
Cochise county, in the 10-20% range. Its a beginning with CPCs
8-14 day outlook period (June 23-29) still leaning toward above
normal rainfall (33% to 50% chance). High temperatures by next
Sunday will cool off to more seasonable levels.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
SKC thru much of the valid pd with SCT 10-12k ft AGL SE of KTUS
btwn 16/21Z and 17/01Z. SFC winds until 16/18Z and then again aft
17/04Z will be terrain driven and less than 10 kts. SFC winds at
the in between times, WLY/NWLY at 8-14 kts with gusts around 20
kts and 13-17 kts with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and hot conditions are expected across southeast
Arizona this week. Generally single digit min RH values in the
valleys, with mountain locations in the 10-18 percent range.
20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less from Tucson westward, with
occasional afternoon/early evening gusts to around 20 mph due to
the strong surface heating. East of Tucson, breezy afternoon and
early evening 20-foot winds are expected in the Gila River Valley
this afternoon with peak wind speeds of 12-18 mph and gusts to
around 35 mph. With the strongest winds forecast to be in the
upper Gila River valley near Safford, there is the possibility of
a few hours of near critical to brief critical fire weather
conditions today and Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>509.

Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening
for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

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