960
FXUS65 KTWC 102022
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
122 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather persists over the next seven
days with well above normal temperatures each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION... The warm and dry weather continues for Southeastern
Arizona over the next week. High temperatures will continue to be
8 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal this week thanks to the
high pressure that continues to stick around. This above normal
temperatures have the potential for near to record breaking
temperatures, more in the climate section.

Early next week there is a shortwave trough will move through the
area with the only notable changes is a slight decrease in
temperatures. No precipitation with this system and high
temperatures will still remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z.
SKC. SFC winds WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts thru 10/03Z then again aft 10/18Z
thru the end of the period. Otherwise SFC winds remain under 10
kts and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days
along with well above normal high temperatures. 20-foot winds
will generally be 15 mph or less and terrain driven throughout
the week. Minimum RH values in the valleys and mountains 16-26
percent with good overnight recoveries at least 35 percent in
the mountains and over 45 percent in the valleys for the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record or near record high temperatures for December 10-12

Date                      Dec 10         Dec 11        Dec 12
                       FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport     78  82/1950    80  83/1939    79  79/2004
Ajo                     79  84/1939    80  85/1950    81  83/1995
Organ Pipe Cactus       81  83/2015    82  83/1995    82  83/2010
Nogales Airport         78  81/2015    78  78/2023    78  81/2010

NBM probabilities to tie or break record highs for December 10-12

Date                     Dec 10          Dec 11        Dec 12
                        TIE/BREAK       TIE/BREAK     TIE/BREAK
Tucson Intl Airport       1%/ 0%          0%/ 0%       39%/19%
Ajo                       0%/ 0%          0%/ 0%        0%/ 0%
Organ Pipe Cactus        16%/12%         25%/17%       41%/21%
Nogales Airport           2%/ 0%         60%/22%        2%/ 0%

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Tetrault

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