781
FNUS75 KTWC 111843
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Gardner Pile Burn...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1143 AM MST Fri Sep 11 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MST on September 12.

.DISCUSSION...Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening this weekend. Earliest start to storm activity will be between
noon and 2 PM, then dissipating a couple hours after sunset. The main
threats will be heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts to 45 mph. Outside
of storms winds will generally be 5 to 10 mph out of the west to
northwest. Min RH will be around 45 percent with very good overnight
recoveries around 85 percent.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....86-89 degrees.
Min humidity........46-49 percent.
20-foot winds.......North northeast winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning,
                    then shifting to the west northwest in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 5600 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 5 knots early in the morning, then shifting
                    to the west northwest 4 to 8 knots late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (21200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........47        24        60        71
Weather cov.....                    S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....          NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov.......                     S CHC     CHANCE
CWR.............0         0         20        60
Temp............65        77        84        82
RH..............94        66        49        51
20 FT wind......SW 3G5    N 2G5     N 3G6     W 4G10
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2100      5000      4200
Transport wind..SW 4      N 4       NE 4      SW 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2         9         20        25
Ventrate Cat....POOR      MRGL      FAIR      FAIR

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10 PM.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent decreasing to 0 percent after 10 PM.
Min temperature.....64-67 degrees.
Max humidity........86-89 percent.
20-foot winds.......West southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West southwest 6 to 7 knots shifting to the northwest
                    4 to 5 knots after 2 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........67        76        34        34
Weather cov.....CHANCE    S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE    S CHC
CWR.............30        20        0         0
Temp............79        72        68        67
RH..............55        70        80        82
20 FT wind......W 4G10    SW 3G6    SW 3G5    SW 2G5
Mix hgt (ft)....1000      500       500       500
Transport wind..NW 7      S 6       W 6       W 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7         3         3         3
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....88-91 degrees.
Min humidity........40-43 percent.
20-foot winds.......South southeast winds up to 5 mph in the
                    morning, then shifting to the west southwest 5
                    to 9 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 6200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....East northeast around 5 knots shifting to the
                    west southwest 5 to 7 knots early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to marginal (9500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to fair (25800 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........30        18        63        63
Weather cov.....                    S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    S CHC     CHANCE
CWR.............0         0         20        50
Temp............65        77        87        87
RH..............87        62        42        42
20 FT wind......S 2G4     SE 3G5    S 5G8     W 7G12
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2400      6000      5600
Transport wind..E 5       E 4       S 5       W 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3         10        30        33
Ventrate Cat....POOR      MRGL      FAIR      FAIR

$$
Forecaster...Hardin
Requested by...Wes Gutweiler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621213.3/TWC
.DELDT 09/11/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wesley.gutweiler@usda.gov

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