597
FNUS75 KTWC 141614
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Oracle Fuel Break Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
914 AM MST Fri Aug 14 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0916 MST on August 14.

.DISCUSSION...This afternoon presents a slight chance (10-30%)
for showers and storms with the main concern again today focused on
brief heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty outflow winds to
around 35 mph. The best timeframe for showers and storms to impact
the site will be from 1200 to 1900 MST. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
be westerly at 5 to 10 mph with a slight chance (10-20%) for gusts
to exceed 20 mph.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly Cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....88-91 degrees.

Chance for greater than 100 deg...0%

Min humidity........32-35 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph late this morning shifting
                    to the west in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.

Chance for greater than 20 mph...10%

Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 7 knots shifting to the west
around 5 to 9 knots in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1900 knot-ft) increasing to good (43900 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........28        48        53
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
CWR.............10        20        30
Temp............74        82        84
RH..............59        43        36
20 FT wind......E 3G6     W 4G7     W 6G12
Mix hgt (ft)....3400      6700      7300
Transport wind..SW 3      SW 4      W 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10        27        44
Ventrate Cat....MRGL      FAIR      GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....68-71 degrees.
Max humidity........53-56 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest
                    overnight.

Chance for greater than 20 mph...20%

Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 4 to 9 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (50300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (2000 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........66        42        50        31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10        0         0         0
Temp............80        75        73        70
RH..............40        47        47        52
20 FT wind......W 5G10    W 4G8     SW 4G6    SW 4G7
Mix hgt (ft)....6300      500       500       500
Transport wind..W 8       W 7       W 7       W 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..50        4         4         3
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      POOR      POOR      POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....92-95 degrees.

Chance for greater than 100 deg...0%

Min humidity........23-26 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.

Chance for greater than 20 mph...10%

Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL increasing to 8800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 6 knots shifting to the the west
late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft) increasing to good (53000 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........26        15        33        53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         10        10
Temp............70        79        86        89
RH..............54        40        32        25
20 FT wind......S 3G6     E 4G6     N 3G6     W 4G10
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2800      8000      8200
Transport wind..E 4       NE 4      SW 3      W 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2         11        24        41
Ventrate Cat....POOR      MRGL      FAIR      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the mid 90s. Light
winds.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the upper 90s.
Light winds.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the upper 90s. East
winds around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Van Stratten
Requested by...J.Fulgham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2619437.3/TWC
.DELDT 08/14/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeffrey.fulgham@usda.gov

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