145
FNUS75 KTWC 131541
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Oracle Fuel Break Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
841 AM MST Thu Aug 13 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0916 MST on August 13.

.DISCUSSION...

High temperature today in the upper 80s with minimum RH around
38%. 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms today mostly
after 1100 through 2000 MST. The biggest concern associated with
storms and showers today is heavy rainfall leading to flash
flooding with gusty winds 35 to 40 mph with stronger storms. Outside
of thunderstorms, winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph with
a 35% chance of gusts greater than 20 mph. Tonight, low temperatures
in the 60s with maximum RH around 76%. Winds will be from the
southwest at 5 to 10 mph with a 70% chance for gusts greater than
20 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms
                    likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40-60 percent.
Max temperature.....86-89 degrees.

Chance for greater than 100 deg...0%

Min humidity........38-41 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west
late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.

Chance for greater than 20 mph....35%

Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL increasing to 6500 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South around 6 knots shifting to the west 4 to
                    7 knots in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Marginal (12100 knot-ft) increasing to fair
                    (38800 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........58        59        71
Weather cov.....          S CHC     LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          S CHC     LIKELY
CWR.............10        20        60
Temp............73        78        83
RH..............66        51        41
20 FT wind......S 5G7     W 4G8     W 6G11
Mix hgt (ft)....2000      5100      6500
Transport wind..S 6       W 5       W 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12        25        39
Ventrate Cat....MRGL      FAIR      FAIR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the
evening.
Chance of pcpn......20-40 percent.
Min temperature.....66-69 degrees.
Max humidity........73-76 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.

Chance for greater than 20 mph....70%

Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 knots shifting to the south 4
                    to 5 knots after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Marginal (12400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (1900 knot-ft) early in the evening.

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........61        59        56        55
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............40        30        30        30
Temp............78        72        70        68
RH..............51        63        65        71
20 FT wind......SW 5G10   SW 6G10   SW 5G8    S 5G7
Mix hgt (ft)....2700      500       500       500
Transport wind..W 7       SW 8      SW 8      SW 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19        4         4         3
Ventrate Cat....MRGL      POOR      POOR      POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent decreasing to 0 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....87-90 degrees.

Chance for greater than 100 deg...0%

Min humidity........31-34 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.

Chance for greater than 20 mph....10%

Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 4 to 5 knots shifting to the
                    southwest 4 to 8 knots in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1900 knot-ft) increasing to good (41500
                    knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........48        31        35        40
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............20        20        20        20
Temp............67        74        81        85
RH..............73        59        45        34
20 FT wind......SE 4G6    E 3G6     S 3G6     W 6G12
Mix hgt (ft)....500       3100      5600      7200
Transport wind..SE 4      SE 4      SW 4      W 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2         12        23        51
Ventrate Cat....POOR      MRGL      FAIR      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Light winds.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the mid 90s. Light
winds.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the upper 90s. Light
winds.

$$
Forecaster...Malarkey
Requested by...J.Fulgham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2619437.2/TWC
.DELDT 08/13/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeffrey.fulgham@usda.gov

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