Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
270
FNUS75 KTWC 110027
FWSTWC
Spot Forecast for MULE DEER...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
527 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MST on August 10.
.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms can impact the fire late this afternoon and evening.
Any storm is capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds,
possibly small hail, and locally heavy rainfall that can lead to
flash flooding. Thunderstorm chances return tomorrow afternoon and
evening with similar impacts. Minimum RHs will range from 38 to 42
percent tomorrow afternoon then increase to 46 to 54 percent
Wednesday with good recoveries overnight.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Chance of thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of showers in the evening. Chance of
thunderstorms late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....68-71 degrees.
Max humidity........74-77 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 5
to 8 mph in the evening and overnight.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (32000 knot-ft) decreasing to marginal
(9200 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
to poor (2300 knot-ft) late in the night.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 10 knots shifting to the southwest 6
to 9 knots in the late evening and overnight,
then shifting to the northwest around 5 knots
overnight shifting to the southwest 5 to 6
knots after 3 am.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........69 59 40 40
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............50 40 10 10
Temp............84 76 73 71
RH..............46 59 66 68
20 FT wind......W 7G12 S 6G11 S 3G6 S 3G6
Mix hgt (ft)....3200 500 500 500
Transport wind..W 10 SW 9 W 6 NW 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32 5 3 3
Ventrate Cat....FAIR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly sunny. Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms late in the
morning. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Max temperature.....86-89 degrees.
Min humidity........41-44 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the west 7
to 12 mph early in the morning. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to marginal (9200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to good (54200 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 7 knots increasing to 8 to 11 knots
late in the morning.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........25 11 28 53
Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............0 0 20 30
Temp............70 78 85 87
RH..............75 62 48 42
20 FT wind......SE 4G6 W 6G10 W 8G13 W 10G14
Mix hgt (ft)....500 2200 4800 6000
Transport wind..SW 5 W 6 W 9 W 11
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 14 44 66
Ventrate Cat....POOR MRGL GOOD GOOD
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy then
becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent decreasing to 20 percent early in
the evening, increasing to 50 percent
overnight.
Min temperature.....68-71 degrees.
Max humidity........77-80 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (38000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (2100
knot-ft).
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 11 knots shifting to the
southwest 5 to 7 knots in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........60 39 34 63
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............40 20 10 50
Temp............83 77 73 71
RH..............48 56 65 70
20 FT wind......W 8G14 W 6G10 SW 4G7 SW 4G7
Mix hgt (ft)....3800 600 400 500
Transport wind..W 10 NW 8 SW 5 SW 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..38 4 2 2
Ventrate Cat....FAIR POOR POOR POOR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the
morning. Showers through the day. Thunderstorms
likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent increasing to 80 percent late in the
morning, then decreasing to 40 percent late in
the afternoon.
Max temperature.....81-84 degrees.
Min humidity........52-55 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to marginal (12400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to marginal (19100
knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
fair (29000 knot-ft) in the afternoon in the
late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL increasing to 3800 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 4 to 8 knots.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........66 66 84 84
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC CHANCE LIKELY
CWR.............50 50 80 80
Temp............69 74 80 81
RH..............78 70 56 53
20 FT wind......W 4G6 W 5G8 W 6G10 W 7G12
Mix hgt (ft)....1100 2500 3800 3400
Transport wind..SW 4 W 5 W 7 W 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 12 26 28
Ventrate Cat....POOR MRGL FAIR FAIR
$$
Forecaster...Tetrault
Requested by...SARAH TOLSON
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619398.0/TWC
.DELDT 08/10/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL AZTDC@FIRENET.GOV
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