033
FNUS75 KTWC 261031
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Mica Bowl Rx...NPS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
331 AM MST Wed Jun 26 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MST on June 26.

.DISCUSSION...Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side
into next week, along with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate
locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph
each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible.
Stronger erratic outflows with some thunderstorms.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......5 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
                    morning and afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 2.
Max temperature.....76-79 degrees.
Min humidity........42-45 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the west
                    11 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 9100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 12 knots.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........59        28        51        55
Weather cov.....                    S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............0         10        20        20
LAL.............1         1         2         3
Temp............67        71        74        76
RH..............59        53        51        44
20 FT wind......SE 5      W 5G9     W 8G13    W 11G16
Mix hgt (ft)....900       3700      7100      8700
Transport wind..W 6       NW 8      W 10      W 12
Haines index....3         3         3         2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent decreasing to 10 percent late in the
                    evening.
LAL.................2 until 2300, then 1.
Min temperature.....65-68 degrees.
Max humidity........55-58 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 10 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 5 to 6 mph overnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the evening.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL decreasing to 100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 11 knots shifting to the north around
                    5 knots after 3 am, then shifting to the west
                    early in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........40        48        25        33
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............20        20        10        10
LAL.............2         2         1         1
Temp............74        71        70        67
RH..............45        46        54        56
20 FT wind......W 10G14   NW 6G10   SW 4      SE 4
Mix hgt (ft)....5400      300       200       200
Transport wind..W 11      W 8       W 8       W 6
Haines index....2         2         3         3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
                    morning and afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 2.
Max temperature.....76-79 degrees.
Min humidity........39-42 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds up to 5 mph shifting to the
                    west 12 to 18 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 9100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 14 knots.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........46        28        55        55
Weather cov.....                    S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    S CHC     CHANCE
CWR.............0         0         20        40
LAL.............1         1         3         3
Temp............67        70        76        77
RH..............53        48        41        40
20 FT wind......SE 2      W 5       W 9G14    W 12G18
Mix hgt (ft)....900       3800      7300      9100
Transport wind..W 5       W 6       W 10      W 13
Haines index....3         3         3         3

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 60s. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around
8 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 60s. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 8 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
in the upper 60s. Highs in the upper 70s. East winds around
7 mph.

$$
Forecaster...RASMUSSEN
Requested by...Fire Ecologist
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416673.0/TWC
.DELDT 06/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gabriel_dejong@nps.org

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