622
FNUS75 KTWC 121653
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Gardner Pile Burn...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
953 AM MST Sat Sep 12 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 MST on September 13.

.DISCUSSION...Elevated moisture levels will continue Sunday
and Monday resulting in chances of thunderstorms each day.
While the highest thunderstorm chances will tend to be
during the afternoon hours, we can`t rule out showers
and thunderstorms overnight or during the morning hours. The
main threat will be heavy rain though gusty and erratic
winds over 40 mph will occur with any stronger storms.
Winds will generally be less than 10 mph and terrain driven
outside of any thunderstorms.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent in the morning, increasing to 50 percent
                    in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....87-90 degrees.
Min humidity........42-45 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL decreasing to 3400 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 6 knots shifting to the west
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (38200 knot-ft) decreasing to marginal
                    (14500 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      1 PM      4 PM
Sky (%).........55        65
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE
CWR.............30        50
Temp............87        84
RH..............43        47
20 FT wind......SW 4G10   W 5G12
Mix hgt (ft)....6600      3400
Transport wind..SW 6      SW 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..39        20
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent decreasing to 10 percent late in the
                    evening.
Min temperature.....64-67 degrees.
Max humidity........86-89 percent.
20-foot winds.......South to southwest winds 5 to 10 mph s. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 9 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........67        66        54        53
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE    S CHC
CWR.............30        30        10        10
Temp............79        71        68        66
RH..............54        71        81        84
20 FT wind......SW 4G10   S 4G7     S 6G10    S 5G8
Mix hgt (ft)....800       400       500       500
Transport wind..SW 5      S 7       S 9       S 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4         3         4         4
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thuderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent increasing to 70 percent late in the
                    morning and continuing in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....85-88 degrees.
Min humidity........45-48 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 7 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to marginal (9000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to marginal (14100
                    knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
                    fair (23000 knot-ft) in the afternoon late in
                    the morning, then increasing to fair (26000
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon decreasing to fair
                    (21300 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........48        31        78        78
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE    LIKELY
CWR.............10        10        70        70
Temp............65        75        84        84
RH..............87        66        48        47
20 FT wind......S 4G7     S 4G8     SW 6G12   SW 6G14
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2300      4900      4200
Transport wind..S 7       SW 6      SW 6      SW 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4         14        30        30
Ventrate Cat....POOR      MRGL      FAIR      FAIR

$$
Forecaster...Lader
Requested by...Wes Gutweiler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621213.4/TWC
.DELDT 09/12/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wesley.gutweiler@usda.gov

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