153
FXUS63 KUNR 170041
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
641 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms and showers linger into this evening for some areas.

- Cold front will bring another shot for precipitation early
  Saturday.

- Active pattern continues through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Current upper air models and Water Vapor show upper ridge axis
east of the forecast area towards the Great Lakes region, while
upper low sits over Wyoming. Surface low currently sits over
central SD with a frontal boundary running down into central
Nebraska. Radar currently shows two areas of precipitation;
showers over the deformation zone eastern MT/WY into northwestern
SD, and a line of showers/storms in south central SD near the
frontal boundary. Temperatures currently sit in the 50s for most
places, 40s in the Black Hills.

Precipitation will linger into this evening as the upper low
swings up into ND tonight. Following passage of this system,
forecast area will briefly be in dry zonal flow, with a short-
lived warmer Friday, as highs jump into the 60s for most places.
Late Friday into Saturday morning a clipper system swings down
from the northwest, bringing cooler temperatures back in as well
as some light precipitation chances Friday night into Saturday
morning. Some light snow may also be possible in the higher
elevation Black Hills areas Saturday morning. Breezy northwest
winds are expected behind the clipper, with NAM showing 3-4mb/3hr
pressure rises during the day Saturday. Low end advisory winds may
be possible.

Mild ridging builds over the region on Sunday, once again bringing
warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Sunday will be the likely
be the "warmest" day of the forecast period, with highs in the
upper 60s and low 70s for most areas. Unsettled weather returns
Monday as an upper trough slides across southern Canada and see
temperatures dropping once again, along with increased
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 640 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Upper low will push out of the region overnight, with lingering
MVFR-IFR cigs trending to VFR by later Fri morning all places.
Expect showers to end overnight across the western half with a
few lingering showers possible Fri morning across the SD Plains.
Breezy west winds and mostly clear skies expected by Fri
afternoon, with the strongest winds across NW SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...JC