101
FXUS63 KUNR 032004
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
104 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire wx conditions may develop tomorrow afternoon
  across portions of northeastern WY into southwestern SD

- Mild, dry, and breezy weather can be expected through most of
  the week with the next chance for precip Friday into Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Current upper air analysis and WV imagery shows very broad
ridging and near zonal flow over the western and central US. A
shortwave trof is situated over western WY/northern UT. Southerly
return flow has developed over the region with temperatures
warming into the mid to upper 50s. LLJ develops tonight over the
western SD plains with breezy winds possible near the NE border.
BUFKIT soundings near the SD/NE border show gusts of up to 30 kt
mixing down to the sfc overnight.

Main concern for tomorrow will be the potential for critical fire
wx conditions to develop across the Weston County plains in
northeastern WY into southwestern SD. See Fire Wx discussion for
more details. Cool front will sag south into the region through
the day with winds shifting north and temps beginning to fall.
Breezy southerly winds and warmer temperatures return on Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of another cool front. Could see stronger
winds on Thursday afternoon with this system with the potential
for adv level winds across the western SD plains.

Stronger shortwave crosses the region Friday/Saturday. There will
be better moisture associated with this system which will support
chances for rain/snow in addition to more breezy weather. Upper
level ridge builds into the region through the next week with mild
temperatures and mostly dry conditions continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1027 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southeasterly
surface winds through this evening will veer westerly overnight
ahead of an approaching cool front. As the front crosses overhead
expect a secondary wind shift to northwesterly 15-21Z Tuesday.
This is a dry frontal passage with no rain or snow shower chances
forecast at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 102 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Critical fire wx conditions are possible across portions of
northeastern WY into southwestern SD Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon
temperatures across the Weston County plains into southwestern SD
will climb into the 70s with downslope areas east of the Black
Hills seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Breezy westerly
winds will develop ahead of a cool front moving through the region
Tuesday afternoon. Deep mixing and very dry air combined with
potential gusty winds may support critical fire weather conditions.
Frequent gusts over 25 mph with RH as low as 15 to 20 percent are
possible.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for SDZ321-322-325-326-332-333.
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for WYZ317.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...Wong