954
FXUS63 KUNR 290325
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
925 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Mild and dry through the rest of the week

-Unsettled and cooler to start next week with a good chance of
 rain Sunday night into Monday, with high some high elevation snow
 possible as well

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

No major forecast updates this evening. Spotty showers possible
(<15% chance) across southern SD late tonight, driven by positive
theta-e advection; little to no precipitation expected. Mild
conditions persist through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Mean upper troughing over the PAC NW and western Canada will
support general SW flow through the remainder week with weak/dry
impulses traversing the flow. Departing impulse giving way to
clear skies today as winds shifts NW behind the sfc reflection.
Expect highs in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise, for the rest of the
week highs will generally be in the 60s, although things will cool
down Friday some behind a weak cool front, with highs generally
in the 50s that day. Mild this weekend as WAA and height rises
spread NE ahead of the digging western CONUS upper trough. There
is a low chance for a few showers Friday night toward central SD
as a disturbance skirts the region and forces pos theta-e adv.
Western CONUS upper trough will lift out the Pac NW early next
week, with broad lift spreading into the region starting Sunday
night. The best chance for precip will be Monday when the main
trough passes over the region. Very warm system for early Nov,
with mainly rain expected. However, enough cold air may entrain
into the back of the system Monday to allow for some higher
elevation snow across northeast WY and the Black Hills. This could
some support some light snow accums chances there, esp in the
northern Black Hills.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 923 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected through 30/01z before widespread fog
begins to develop across much of the western South Dakota plains
resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF
period. KRAP will most likely be impacted starting around
30/05-06z.


A few isolated showers are possible tonight into tomorrow morning
across southwestern and south-central South Dakota.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SE
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...Schultz