306
FXUS63 KUNR 041119
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
519 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong dry cold front passes through the Northern Plains today,
  bringing gusty northwest winds and elevated fire conditions.

- No precipitation expected in the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

10Z upper level analysis has the Northern Plains under fast
northwest flow as deep closed low spins just north of Lake
Superior. Skies are mostly clear with just some high clouds
passing through. At the surface, high pressure resides across the
Northern Plains, with a frontal boundary across eastern Montana
and Wyoming. Temperatures are currently in the 40s and 50s across
the forecast area, with generally light and variable winds.

Fast northwest flow continues over the Northern Plains today,
with a strong upper shortwave and associated surface cold front
expected to cross the area today. Behind the front, strong
pressure rises of 2-4mb/3hr during peak heating/best mixing will
produce northwesterly winds of 25-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph. A
wind advisory is in effect from late morning through early evening
for the SD plains. High temperatures prior to the arrival of the
cold front will be in the 70s to mid 80s. Winds will diminish
overnight, with lows falling into the 30s and 40s. No
precipitation is expected with the frontal passage.

Strong northerly flow persists into Friday, with dry conditions
continuing, and cool temps. Highs will be well below average, in
the 50s and 60s. Low temps will be quite cool, with some areas
dipping to around freezing by Saturday morning. Some patchy frost
is very possible late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Western upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies and Plains
this weekend into the middle of next week. Temperatures will
slowly rise back to near average by the end of the weekend, and
above average through the early part of next week. No
precipitation is expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 514 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Areas of smoke will linger through this morning, dropping
visibility down to around 6SM in some areas, but conditions
should remain VFR. Winds will pick up and become strong out of the
northwest by mid morning as a cold front moves through the
forecast area. Wind gusts to 55 mph are expected during the
afternoon hours across the SD plains. Gusty northwest winds will
diminish by mid evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-
     030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...15