636
FXUS63 KUNR 040338
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
938 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Warm and dry through next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

WAA will ensue overnight tonight, with height rises supporting
expanding mid and high level clouds. This will prevent temps from
dropping off too much tonight. Warming up Sunday and Monday, with
the warmest temps on Monday when widespread 80s are expected. A
few 90s will also be possible. Cool front will move through Monday
night, supporting a cooler but still mild Tuesday. Warm and dry
the rest of the week. However, probs for much cooler weather are
increasing to start the following week as deep upper trough looks
to shift into SW Canada, forcing a strong cold front into the
region, possibly supporting the first widespread freeze of the
season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving east
across South Dakota pulling this morning`s showers eastward as they
continue to fizzle out. 16Z surface analysis depicts a cold front
pushing south through the SD plains into northern parts of Nebraska.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph are expected across the SD plains through
the afternoon. Temperatures will stay in the mid/upper 70s
through the week

As the aforementioned trough moves out, zonal to northwest flow will
persist for the next several days. Temperatures through the week
will remain seasonably in the 70s, aside for Monday and Tuesday
which will jump to widespread mid 80s as minor ridging aloft moves
in temporarily. Temps will then return back to normal for the
remainder of next week. Tuesday looks slightly breezy with 25mph
gusts over most of the area. Small shortwaves may crest the ridge
through the week, but the large-scale pattern will break Sun-Mon
when a large trough is forecasted to bring more active weather.
Current guidance has it reaching the west coast Sat and the better
forcing reaching SD later Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 933 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Breezy southerly winds (~20kts) will increase over northeast
Wyoming starting around 04/08z and last through Sunday morning,
then becoming light and variable by midday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...Schweigert
AVIATION...Schultz