054
FXUS63 KUNR 080451
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1051 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and hot conditions expected until mid-week.

- Precipitation chances increase towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Current upper air models show upper ridge over the Rockies, with
weak shortwave over western Wyoming and northwest flow over the
forecast area this afternoon. Surface analysis shows high pressure
now to our east, and a surface boundary running from central
Montana into Wyoming. Satellite shows mid and high clouds
invading from the west. Temperatures currently sit in the mid 70s
to mid 80s this afternoon with breezy southeasterly winds.

Upper ridge broadens over the northern and central plains the rest
of today through Monday, as upper low moves over the PAC NW.
Deterministics also show the weak shortwave trekking across the
forecast area during the day Monday. Limited moisture and energy
has models a bit inconsistent as far as potential precipitation.
CAMs do try to inject isolated showers Monday afternoon into the
evening, however are inconsistent as to location. Have kept with
the little to no PoP trend, and most places can expect to remain
dry on Monday, however wont be surprised to see an isolated shower
or two somewhere in western SD in the afternoon.

Upper ridge continues over the Rockies into the plains through
Wednesday morning. Later Wednesday upper ridge axis slides east of
the FA as the upper trough digs into the southwest CONUS, setting
up southwest flow over the region. Shortwave energy ejecting up
into the region the latter half of Wednesday will bring our next
chance for showers/storms.

Upper flow gets a bit messy towards the end of the week, but
deterministic models point towards the upper trough staying
somewhere over the western CONUS, resulting in daily potential
for precipitation through the weekend and possibly beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1048 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds overnight will become gusty around 18 kts in the
afternoon. There is a possibility of showers near KRAP tomorrow
afternoon, however chances are too low to mention in the TAF at
this time.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Pettett