801
FXUS63 KUNR 021948
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1248 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds continue today and tonight - gusts of 40
  to 60 mph.

- Rain changes to snow across the higher elevations of the
  northern Black Hills this afternoon where 4 to 6 inches of snow
  is possible by Tuesday morning. Uncertainty in amounts given
  melting plus timing of transition to snow.

- Dry Tuesday through rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 1245 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave lifting north of the forecast
area along with another stout shortwave trough ejecting into the
central and southern Plains. Surface low is centered over ND/SD/MN
border with cold front stretching southward into western KS and a
second surface low over west-central KS. Northwest winds continue
across the forecast area. Gusts have started to come up over the
past hour with 50-55 mph gusts across Meade and Pennington counties.
Expect wind gusts to increase through the afternoon with occasional
gusts to 60 mph through the evening hours across Fall River and
portions of western SD plains where a High Wind Warning remains in
effect. Elsewhere, gusts 40 to 50 mph are expected through the
evening hours.

Precipitation has increased across the northern Black Hills over the
past few hours given upslope enhancement. The models have been too
quick with the transition from rain to snow across the Hills compared
to observations, leading to unrealistic snow accumulation that
has yet to materialize. Starting to see the transition to all snow
now across the higher elevations of the Black Hills, which will
continue through 22z. Melting and timing of transition to all
snow introduce considerable uncertainty regarding final amounts,
especially below 5500 feet. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory
for the Wyoming and northern Black Hills where 4 to 6 inches of
snow is possible by 12z Tuesday. Heaviest snowfall will be limited
to areas above 5500 feet, with locally higher amounts possible.
Lesser amounts (~an inch or less) for lower elevations. Snow will
end early Tuesday morning with light rain lingering across south-
central SD into the late morning/early afternoon.

Upper trough forecast to push through the Central Plains Wednesday
with light rain possible across south-central SD. Otherwise,
generally dry weather expected through the week with seasonable
temperatures. Brisk northwest flow next Saturday as clipper drops
out of Canada with wind gusts > 40 mph possible and precipitation
northeast of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1034 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Widespread MVFR and IFR will continue through most of the
forecast period, though occasional LIFR is possible later tonight.
The lowered conditions will be due to low clouds and
precipitation. Improving conditions to VFR are likely late tonight
into tomorrow morning.

Rain will slowly track through the area from the north though
some snow will mix with the rain over northeastern WY/higher Black
Hills around 02z to 06z.

Strong gusty northwest winds have been developing this morning
and continue into tonight, with gusts from 40-55kts on the open
plains, particularly just east of the Black hills. Conditions will
begin to improve from west to east after 03/06Z.

After this round of precip and wind exits late tonight/tomorrow
morning, mainly VFR and much calmer conditions will be likely the
rest of the week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ Tuesday for SDZ001-002-
     012>014-032-043-044-046-047-049-076>078.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for SDZ024.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM MST Tuesday for SDZ026-027-030-031-
     041-042-072>075.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for WYZ057.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SE
AVIATION...GS