458
FXUS63 KUNR 102322
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
522 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer through Tuesday, then becoming unsettled and cooler.

- Isolated TS possible this afternoon and Tuesday across western
  SD, with some low-end potential for severe storms.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through Tues
  across portions of northeast WY.

- Wildfire smoke is expected to linger much of the week, with
  thicker smoke at times across the western third

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Early this afternoon, we are still watching and waiting to see if
we can get some storms going. Thunderstorm chances are still
highly conditional and will depend on whether or not we can break
the cap. Yesterday, one storm was able to develop and as of this
writing, clouds are building over the central Black Hills. So it`s
possible.

For tonight, any storms that are able to develop, they will move
east through the evening. Overnight looks quiet with diminishing
winds and overnight lows in the 50s to 60s.

Tuesday looks similar to today, with highs mostly in the upper
80s to 90s. Zonal flow will keep the daily chances for afternoon
storms in place. SPC has placed a Slight (level 2 of 5) over the
central SD counties for Tuesday.

The SPC has also placed a Slight risk of severe weather on
Wednesday over SW SD. Modest westerly winds aloft will be over the
central High Plains Wednesday with a surface low developing near
the CO/KS border. Easterly surface winds north of the low over
Nebraska into southern South Dakota will maintain moisture and
instability into the area. Storms will form over the High Plains
and move eastward through the evening. Hail may occur initially,
with damaging gusts possible during the evening.

Unsettled pattern under zonal flow will give the area cooler
temps and daily chances for rain and storms for the second half of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 517 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A thunderstorms is currently moving east off the Black Hills, as
are other smaller storms around it. A PROB30 has been put in the
forecast for KRAP to cover any storms that survive off the Hills.
Storms may bring MVFR/IFR conditions due to localized heavy rain
and lowered ceilings, along with hail and erratic gusty winds.
After they move out, VFR conditions are expected for the whole
area through tomorrow afternoon. Models are supportive of more
storms firing off the Hills again tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 1249 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are developing across
northeastern WY and far southwestern SD early this afternoon.
Critical fire weather conditions will last into the evening. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect for these areas.

Hot and dry weather with elevated fire weather conditions
(especially over northeastern WY) will continue through the mid
week. Cooler and unsettled weather moves into the region by
Wednesday and continues through the late week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for SDZ322.
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>317.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...Schweigert
FIRE WEATHER...GS