403
FXUS63 KUNR 252356
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
456 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds to diminish quickly this evening

- Cold air to remain in place through Thanksgiving, with colder
  air coming in this weekend

- Snow chances this coming weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 455 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

The High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisories were allowed to
expire on time. Winds have diminished significantly across much
of the area. Areas on the eastern Plains near Winner will see
gusts occasionally gust up to 40 mph over the next hour before
dropping into the 20 mph range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Latest analysis shows 500hpa closed low spinning across northeast
SD with subsidence seen on water vapor imagery across western SD.
Upper ridge is located across the western CONUS. At the surface,
vigorous low pressure is located in central MN with westward
oriented surface trof into west central SD. Very gusty NW surface
winds are still found across the western SD plains, with some
locations still gusting over 45kts as of 20Z.

Winds will quickly diminish this evening as upper level
system/surface system continue to move east away from CWA, winds
decouple and main bubble of 3-hrly pressure rises also slides east
into MN. While winds in and around the Black Hills have already
started to slide below advry/warning criteria, winds on the plains
are still pretty blustery. Will just let current headlines run
until the 00Z time frame when they are set to expire. With the
winds going light overnight and with the expected clearing skies,
have dropped lows tonight an additional 2-4 degrees versus
inherited values.

Northwest flow continues across the region with little in the way
of WAA through Friday, but things do look generally dry. A few
flurries are possible across the higher elevations of the Black
Hills on Wednesday as a minor short wave drops through the area.

Once we get to Friday and the weekend, things begin to look a bit
more active and messy. The next 500hpa trof is forecast to drop
into the midwest. The models have shown little interest in
consistency with this system, placement and sensible weather.
About the only consistent thing that they have shown is that even
colder air will move in with this feature, with the potential of
seeing our first sub-zero overnight lows with highs in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 407 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the valid
TAF period. Winds will continue to diminish becoming less than 10
knots a the terminals by 03z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Woodward
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Hintz
AVIATION...Woodward