


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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067 FXUS63 KUNR 141938 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 138 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Unsettled through Thursday -Fog and drizzle tonight, mainly on the SD Plains, possibly lingering through the day in the eastern Black Hills foothills -Good chance of rain and a few TS Wed night, esp northeast WY and far Western SD -Drying out this weekend, with seasonal temps && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Deep upper trough over the western CONUS will support unsettled weather the next couple days. The main upper trough will begin to move into the region tonight with very moist southerly flow developing. ESE saturated upslope flow will support areas of fog and drizzle tonight, esp along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills where measurable precip from drizzle can be expected. There will also be passing showers per ongoing unsettled SW flow aloft as weak impulses traverse the flow. ESE moist flow will persist Wed with fog potentially lingering through most of the day along the eastern BH foothills. Have added a mention through the day there. Otherwise, the main area of lift and associated jet streak will shift toward the region Wed evening. This will support a cluster of showers and TS over the western third. Given dynamic forcing from the jetlet, ample deep layer moisture, and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a few strong cells will be possible with gusty winds and hail. PW`s will be over an inch in many areas, which will also support locally heavy rain where cells persist or train. Still come uncertainty as to where the band of best forcing/convergence will setup, but most hires models favor between northeast WY and far western SD. Thus, that`s where the highest pops reside. Showers and isolated TS will linger through Wed night as few weaker impulses traverse the flow. Dry slot will push into the region later Thur morning and afternoon with things drying out and winds shifting westerly. A few showers will be possible Thu night, but it`s looking more dry attm. Drier and slightly cooler air will move into the region for Fri and esp Sat. However, temps will still be around or above seasonal norms. Another ridge of high pressure will start to build into the region Sunday with a warming trend. Forecast confidence then drops off significantly for next week as models and ensembles offer a range of solutions wrt to the depth, speed, and evolution of the next deeper trough, resulting in a large range of temps and precip timing among guidance. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1135 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings over central SD will shift westward this afternoon and evening, invading the Black Hills area and KRAP terminal by 03z. Areas of IFR/LIFR fog and drizzle should also develop after 03z across the SD plains. Scattered rain showers are likely further west across WY overnight. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...15