640
FXUS63 KUNR 040519
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1019 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through the weekend with temperatures trending warmer for
  the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

No major changes made to the forecast in the evening update.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows dry air settling into the area
from the north. Nighttime microphysics imagery shows low moisture
in central SD. Surface stations reporting fog, dense at time.

So main changes to the short term forecast was to add fog to
south-central SD and lower overnight temps for a few spots. But
beyond tomorrow, no changes were made. Still expecting dry weather
with warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

Upper level analysis shows upper trough axis centered from the
Upper Midwest through the Southern Plains. Further upstream, water
vapor imagery shows closed upper low moving onshore across northern
CA and OR/WA. Diffuse surface high pressure over the northern Rockies
into Northern Plains with brisk NW surface flow across the forecast
area. Lingering low clouds across south-central SD will erode this
afternoon with widespread sunshine today. Winds will diminish through
the day as the surface low pulls eastward. Western upper low is
forecast to eject into the Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday,
although precipitation will remain east the area. Generally dry
weather will persist through the week with seasonable temperatures.
Dry clipper system will push through the Northern Plains Friday
into Saturday, although wind potential has diminished considerably
from previous model runs. Western ridge will build Sunday into
early next week. Temperatures are trending 5-15F warmer than
normal Sunday through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance keeps the area
dry through at least mid-week next week before more active western
flow returns by end of next week, although there are no major
precipitation signals thus far.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1018 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. No major
impacts from wind changes.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GS
DISCUSSION...SE
AVIATION...GS