363
FXUS63 KUNR 161625
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
925 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry today, then cooler with a chance of precipitation
  late tonight into Monday

- Seasonally cool and unsettled for the remainder of the upcoming
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

09Z upper level analysis has high amplitude ridge building across
the Rockies, with cutoff low spinning across southern California.
Some high thin clouds are currently moving across the forecast
area. At the surface, high pressure is located across the Dakotas,
with lee trof across eastern Montana and Wyoming. Temperatures at
2am across the forecast area are in the 30s, with light and
variable winds.

One more day of mild and dry conditions are expected today, with
upper ridge shifting into the Northern Plains. Highs across the
area will be in the 50s to lower 60s under partly sunny skies.
Cutoff upper low will lift across the Rockies late tonight, with
some light precipitation possible before daybreak.

By Monday morning, upper cutoff low lifts into western Nebraska
with mid level and surface lows stacked. Widespread light precip
is expected for most of the day on Monday, with best chances from
northeast Wyoming, through the Black Hills, and across southern
portions of SD. Precip amounts will range from a few hundredths
across northwestern SD, to around a tenth of an inch across the
Black Hills. System quickly shifts to the northeast Monday night
with precip ending after midnight. Some light snow will be
possible across higher elevations of the Black Hills late Monday
into Monday night before the system exits the area.

After Monday, split upper trof crosses the Rockies and Northern
Plains, with near average temperatures and unsettled weather
expected through Thursday. Weak ridging develops late in the week
with mainly dry conditions and continued near average to slightly
above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 923 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...Wong