452
FXUS63 KUNR 072011
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
111 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying out today and tomorrow

- Turning breezy Monday. A High Wind Watch has been issued for
  Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 65 mph expected

- Turning colder and unsettled from Wednesday through the end of
  week. Periods of light snow likely

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Rest of today... After a cold and foggy morning, dry air has
advected into the region and has quickly eroded the low clouds
and fog allowing for ample sunshine to begin climbing this
afternoon. Expect mostly clear skies to prevail for the rest of
the day. Dry conditions will continue into Monday with breezy
conditions developing during the afternoons. These winds may
approach advisory level criteria at times, but not expecting to
issue any highlights given the High Wind Watch is currently in
affect for the stronger event on Tuesday.

Confidence has increased enough that a High Wind Watch has been
issued for much of western SD and the central SD Plains. Minor
changes with the evolution of the deepening low pressure system
progged to move SE across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Latest
models now have this low getting caught up with another area of
low pressure across the north central portions of Canada and
developing a double barrel low pattern, with the southern closed
low being what impacts western SD. This has elongated the belt of
850mb winds and has slowed down the speed of this system. This
means that while the 850mb winds have decreased slightly, the
duration of the winds across the area has increased. Event with
the slight weakening of the winds models still depict winds around
50 knots right off the surface and with strong CAA still expected
in rapidly increasing heights, we are still expecting the
development of widespread wind gusts exceeding 58 mph, thus the
High Wind Watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday evening.

Wednesday through the rest of week, models begin to diverge
regarding the overall pattern setup across the region. While both
solutions favor keeping daily chances for precipitation across the
area, how impactful and how much snow will fall remains the big
question going forward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1005 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR/IFR conditions will improve to VFR through the afternoon and
remain for the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-030>032-042-043-046-049-072>074-
     077-078.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Woodward
AVIATION...Smith