856
FXUS63 KUNR 122025
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
225 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty west to northwest winds diminishing tonight
- Freezing temperatures likely Monday morning
- Unsettled weather at times next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

20Z upper level analysis has sharp trof lifting into western
Canada, with another trof dropping into the Pacific Northwest.
Some weak returns continue across the forecast area, with little
more than sprinkles falling from these showers. At the surface,
cold front has moved through the Northern Plains, with gusty winds
and cooler air moving across the forecast area. Gusts to 50 mph
continue across northwest SD, with temps currently in the 50s.

Sharp upper trof continues into Canada overnight with weak ridging
building back into the Northern Plains by Monday morning. Gusty
west to northwest winds will slowly diminish after sunset. Later
tonight, cold surface high settles across the area with light
winds expected. Combination of light winds and clearing skies will
allow temperatures to plummet overnight, with widespread freezing
temperatures expected by Monday morning for most of the area. Far
south central SD should remain above freezing, but there will
likely be frost in spots. A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory have
been issued.

Weak ridging holds across the forecast area for the early part of
the upcoming week. Temperatures will gradually warm back to
average levels by mid week. A weak upper shortwave will slide
across mainly eastern portions of the area Monday night, with some
rain showers possible. Another stronger disturbance lifts across
the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing more widespread
precipitation.

Upper trof finally slides across the area late in the week.
Unsettled weather continues, with temperatures cooling into next
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1119 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions will be found across the SD plains through the
valid forecast period, while low VFR/MVFR cigs will be found
across the Black Hills/northwest SD/northeast WY through 13/00Z.
Areas of -shra are also possible with the lower cigs. Gusty NW
winds from 25-35kts will be found across NW SD as well through
13/00Z. Aft 13/00Z skies will clear and winds will diminish.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-
     073-078.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for
     SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     SDZ046-047-049.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...Hintz