581
FXUS63 KUNR 100911
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
211 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through this week with highs 10-15F warmer than
  average

- Breezy northwest winds across the western SD plains Tuesday
  afternoon

- Next chance for precip comes Friday into Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 211 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Current upper air analysis depicts deepen trof over the eastern
US with a ridge over the western US. A fairly large Chinook arch
extending from AB into MT and WY is showing up on IR and water
vapor imagery. Temperatures across the CWA have dropped into the
teens to 20s with light southerly winds dropping the wind chills
into the single digits in some spots. After a chilly morning,
temps are expected to markedly warm today as the upper level ridge
moves overhead and return flow brings warmer air back into the
region. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 40s in
south central SD to the low 60s across northeastern WY and the
eastern and northern foothills of the Black Hills. Southerly winds
will pick up Monday afternoon as a weak front approaches the
region.

This incoming system won`t do too much aside from bring in some
cloud cover Monday night and a period of breezy northwest winds to
the western SD plains Tuesday afternoon. Can`t rule out a few
sprinkles overnight Monday as mid level moisture advects over the
region but confidence in precip too low to mention in PoPs. As for
the winds on Tuesday, weak 3-hr pressure rises of 1-3 mb could
support gusts of 35 to 45 mph, mainly over northwestern SD.

Ridge broadens and flattens out for the mid-week with above
average temps, dry weather, and light winds as a result. Next
chance for precip comes in the form of a longwave trof pushing
into the western US in the Friday/Saturday timeframe. Models are
still too far out to say any specifics with confidence but it`s
looking like there will be chances for rain showers over the lower
elevations with snow over the Black Hills late Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1022 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...JC