003
FXUS63 KUNR 180817
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
217 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers ending this morning; breezy over northwest SD.

- Sunny and warmer on Sunday

- Windy on Monday, with low end precipitation chances.

- Dry, with warming temperatures Tuesday-Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a strong wave digging down the backside of
a trough, which is centered across the northern Great Plains. A cold
front is crossing the CWA...just passing Rapid City in the last
couple of hours. KUDX radar shows the frontal boundary and light
rain over NW SD through the northern Black Hills and Bear Lodge
Mountains. Winds are gusting to 25-35 mph directly behind the front.
A secondary front will cross the CWA later this morning, bringing a
resurgence of wind today. Steep lapse rates due to cold pool aloft
will support showers this morning...and allow gusty winds to
transfer to the surface. Forecast profiles over NW SD show 700mb
winds in the 35-40kt range, so think gusts will generally be 40-45
mph with occasional gusts up to 50 mph. Not enough to warrant a wind
advisory today. Showers will push through the CWA through mid
morning, then depart to the SE by noon. Light snow will be possible
across the higher Black Hills, but surface temps near or just above
freezing should prevent any notable accumulation. Sunshine will
return for the afternoon, with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Upper ridging quickly builds in Sunday, bringing in warmer SW flow.
Highs areawide are expected to be 20 degrees warmer with plenty more
sunshine. Warmth doesn`t last long, as the next trough/upper low
approaches the region Sunday night into Monday. Surface low/front
crosses the Dakotas Sunday night...and a tightening pressure gradient
on Monday as cold air advection continues. Light showers are
possible, but the bigger story will be the wind. Models show gusts
reaching into advisory/warning criteria. Will keep an eye on this
for potential headlines. Ridging builds afterward and remains in
control for much of the week, bringing dry weather and a warming
trend to the region.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1029 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A cold front is currently pushing through SE MT, NE WY, and NW
SD. Scattered showers are possible as the front pushes through and
a brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions may be possible after
06-08z Saturday morning. Precipitation will clear the forecast
area after 15-17z Saturday. Outside of any showers/low clouds, VFR
conditions will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...SE