734
FXUS63 KUNR 240424
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
924 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/snow possible Monday night

- Potential high wind event Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 60 mph
  possible.

- Pattern change next weekend. Snow chances and turning colder.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 1227 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Heading into Monday, long range and now short range models
have the closed low that is currently spinning across the Four
Corners move into the Central Plains as an open wave with weaker
forcing when comparing to previous model runs. Weak warm air
advection and a weak boundary will just clip our border counties
and some low end Pop chances are possible across these areas.


The biggest weather maker continues to be a trough diving south
into northern Montana late Monday night. Models are in decent
agreement with this system pushing a strong cold front through the
region late Monday night into Tuesday morning ushering some much
colder air for most of western SD and eastern WY. In addition
strong, NW winds are expected to develop post FROPA, that could
approach High Wind criteria Tuesday afternoon. The combination of
strong cold air advection and steep low level lapse rates should
allow for maximum mixing down of the belt of 45 to 50 knot 850mb
winds down to the surface. Some slight deviations in the ensemble
outputs suggest that this event is not a benefit slam dunk High
Wind event at the least we can expect widespread Wind Advisories
will be needed on Tuesday.

Looking ahead toward the Thanksgiving holiday and following
weekend, ensembles and deterministic models continue to be in
decent agreement of a longer term pattern change as a deep, long
wave trough moves into the area that will bring some of the
coldest maximum temperatures of the season so far and daily
chances for some snow to fall across a large portion of the
forecast area. This is still some five days out so trends will
continued to be monitored for where the greatest snow could fall
but overall confidence is high for a colder and wetter pattern
shift.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 924 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Woodward
AVIATION...Wong