459
FXUS63 KUNR 012028
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
228 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated light precipitation expected through tonight.

- Near or above normal temperatures through the forecast period.

- Mostly dry conditions expected over the next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show northwest flow
aloft, with an upper low located over the southern plains. 20Z
surface analysis shows high pressure over eastern MT, while the
cold front that passed through us this morning is now in eastern
Nebraska. Current radar shows a line of light showers from
northwestern into central SD. Temperatures sit in the 50s to mid
60s, with generally light winds.

Little change to the overall pattern is expected through the
week, with zonal to northwest flow aloft hanging around. Ongoing
light precipitation will taper off this evening, and dry
conditions are expected tonight through Friday. Upper ridge
builds over the western CONUS Friday, resulting in warmer
temperatures, with highs generally in the 70s over the weekend.
Next disturbance comes Saturday as a wave rides the northwest flow
through the Dakotas. Current models keep the better forcing in
northwestern SD up into North Dakota. Very limited moisture in the
region, so any precipitation will likely only amount to a trace
or a few hundredths.

Upper ridge continues to dominate the western CONUS through much
of next week, resulting in temperatures staying above normal, with
a few chances for light precipitation as weak shortwaves ride the
northwest flow into the northern plains.




&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1110 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Light showers persist north of KSPF through PIR with widespread
cloud cover across the region. Despite the showers, observed VFR
conditions will persist through the forecast period. Winds
expected to increase from the SE this evening, especially across
northeastern WY and southwestern SD where gusts of 25-30KT are
expected after 18-20z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...SE