050
FXUS63 KUNR 102331
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
531 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild through Saturday with gusty southeasterly winds and
  limited precipitation chances
- Upper level trough and cold front Sunday will bring very windy
  northwesterly winds, colder weather, and some showers
- Freezing temperatures expected Monday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

19Z upper level analysis has high amplitude ridge across the
central CONUS with large closed low just off the West Coast. Weak
upper shortwave is crossing Wyoming at the moment, producing light
precipitation in southern Wyoming, and mid to high level
cloudiness across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure
resides across the Northern Plains northeast of the forecast area.
Strong surface pressure gradient is producing very breezy
southeast return flow winds across northeast Wyoming and far
western SD, with Gillette seeing 25-35 mph winds. Temperatures at
1pm are in the 60s to lower 70s.

Upper ridge will slowly shift east tonight into Saturday, as
surface low pressure strengthens across the lee of the Northern
Rockies. Strong southerly return flow will continue into Saturday,
with very mild temperatures on tap for the area. After a mild
night tonight, temperatures will rise into the 70s and 80s on
Saturday. Weak energy in southwest upper flow will bring some
sprinkles, at best, to parts of the area tonight into Saturday.

Upper ridge axis shifts well east of the area late Saturday into
Sunday. Surface low pressure over eastern Montana will strengthen
and push a strong cold front through the Northern Plains Sunday
morning, as upper trof axis slides across the Northern Rockies.
Strong northwesterly winds will sweep across the forecast area
Sunday, with gusts to 45 mph possible. Some wind headlines may be
warranted for parts of the area on Sunday. Along with the winds,
much cooler air will slide into the area. A wide range in
temperatures is expected across the area, with highs only in the
50s from the Black Hills north and west, and in the 70s and 80s
south and east. Some rain showers will be possible along the front
across southern SD, mainly in the afternoon and evening, with
precipitation amounts very minimal. Closer to the upper trof axis,
better chances for meaningful precipitation will occur across
northeast WY, the Black Hills, and far northwest SD where up to a
tenth of an inch is possible. Some snow showers will also be
possible across the higher elevations of the Black Hills Sunday
afternoon.

Upper trof quickly lifts north of the area Sunday night, with weak
ridging moving back into the area early next week. Cool high
pressure will settle across the area by Monday morning, with low
temperatures falling to near or below freezing for much of the
area. Frost/freeze headlines will likely be issued for the western
SD plains. After a cool day on Monday, temperatures will slowly
rebound back above average through the middle and latter parts of
next week, with only minimal chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 530 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. South to
southeast breezy winds will continue through the overnight hours.
LLWS may develop east of the Black Hills tonight where the
surface winds quickly drop off.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 203 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Gusty southeasterly winds on Saturday become very windy northwest
on Sunday. Minimum relative humidities will dip into the 20s for
a few areas, but should remain high enough to preclude Fire
Weather headlines.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...Dye
FIRE WEATHER...15