363
FXUS63 KUNR 031718
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1118 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
 best chances in the Black Hills

-Warmer and drier the rest of the week

-Hot weather likely Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Rockies ridge will build over the region this week with warmer
and drier conds expected after today. One more day of scattered
showers and storms can be expected today as a weak upper level
trough moves over the region. Pos theta-e adv this morning will
support isold showers and storms over mainly western SD. Areas of
fog will also be possible across northwest SD through morning.
Moderately unstable profiles develop over the Black Hills today
per diurnal heating and a weak cold pool aloft. The best chances
for storms will be over the central Black Hills with activity more
scattered elsewhere. Capping inversion on the Plains may limit
advancement of storms from the Hills onto the adjacent Plains
unless stronger cold pools become established. Given very weak
shear profiles, expect pulse cells with brief small hail and gusty
winds being the main threats today, with an overall very low
severe threat. Other areas of increased chances for storms will be
across far NW SD where a sfc trough will be in place, and south
central SD INVOF of another trough and terrain effects from the
Pine Ridge. With a few weak expected passing impulses, expect low
pop chances to linger overnight. Drying out and warming up Monday
and Tues. Additional weak passing impulses Monday night into Tues
may support isolated TS chances, but most places are expected to
remain dry. Upper ridge will build over the area Wed-Thur, peaking
Thur when the thermal ridge passes over the region, supporting
the hottest day this week. Expect widespread 90s Thur, with low
100s likely on the Plains. Given lingering ll moisture, expect
apparent T`s will be close enough to warrant excessive heat
products, especially across scentral SD. Cold front moves through
at the end of the week, with a good chance of storms possible by
Friday, at least that`s what the current timing and model probs
suggest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1115 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Storms are expected to develop over the central and southern Black
Hills in the 03/19Z to 04/00Z time frame. Local MVFR cigs/vsbys
are psbl with the storms, along with gusty winds and small hail.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the valid fcst
period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Hintz