720
FXUS63 KUNR 282020
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
120 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor travel impacts from blowing and accumulating snow expected
  tonight into Saturday for much of western SD into northeastern
  WY

- Cold temperatures this weekend with highs 10 to 20 degrees below
  average

- There`s a chance for light snow on Tuesday/Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 120 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Initial band of snow has largely moved out of the CWA with a few
lingering snow showers over northwestern SD. Sfc analysis depicts
stationary front/baroclinic zone over western SD with temperatures
across northwestern into south central SD in the teens to low 20s
and temperatures in the 30s to low 40s across southwestern SD
into northeastern WY. A sfc low has also begun to develop in the
lee of the Rockies in central/eastern CO.

The next few hours should be dry across the CWA for the most part
aside from a few snow showers across far northwestern SD. The
next round of snow moves through later this evening, as the sfc
low in CO develops and moves to the south of the CWA and more mid-
level moisture moves into the region. Snow should start in
northeastern WY later this afternoon before moving into western SD
this evening. In terms of totals, current guidance supports
widespread totals of 1-4" across the western SD plains and
northeastern WY and 4-6" across the northern and WY Black Hills.
Winds will pick up later tonight thanks to tightening sfc pressure
gradient. Sustained sfc winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of up to
45 mph could cause patchy blowing snow across northeastern WY
into western SD which could pose minor travel impacts. Have made
no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory.

Snow will gradually taper off from west to east Saturday morning
as high pressure pushes into the region. Temperatures will drop
tomorrow as colder air mass moves in with highs in the upper teens
to low 20s. Lows tomorrow night will drop into the single digits
to near zero. Sunday will be similarly cold with highs in the
teens to low 20s and lows in the single digits. Another shortwave
will pass to the south of the forecast area on Sunday with the
potential for some light snow showers over southwestern SD Sunday
evening.

Temperatures moderate Monday into Tuesday with highs in the 30s
to 40s before the next shortwave/cold front moves through the area
late Tuesday into Wednesday. Deterministic models are still in
poor consensus as to if we`ll even get precip with this mid-week
system. LREF grand ensemble paints 0-20% probs for QPF 0.1+" for
most of the area, with some higher probs (40-60%) in the northern
Black Hills.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1004 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions will become MVFR and IFR late this afternoon and
evening as a storm system moves into the area. Widespread
IFR/MVFR conditions due to snow will be common across the entire
area after 29/03Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for SDZ001-002-
     014-078.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday for SDZ012-013-024>026-031-032-043-072-073.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening to
     11 AM MST /noon CST/ Saturday for SDZ027-030-041-042-044-
     046-047-049-074>077.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday for WYZ057-060.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST
     Saturday for WYZ054>056-058-059.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Smith