353
FNUS73 KUNR 171400
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Clay Spur RX Prep...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
800 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

DISCUSSION...
A shower or thunderstorm is possible this morning, but the most
likely time for showers and thunderstorms is 100 PM to 600 PM,
tapering off this evening and especially after sunset. Any
thunderstorm could contain hail or gusty erratic winds as there is
a marginal risk (1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms. Much warmer
and mostly dry weather will then prevail through Saturday -
although a stray thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out, the
chance is less than 15%. The next organized chance of
thunderstorms should occur Sunday night into early next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the morning, then showers and thunderstorms
                    likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5-15 mph become north.
                    Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................45 percent.
Mixing height.......4700 to 5200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.

TIME (MDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  66  64  68  71  75  74  73  73  73  73
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
Temp............56  57  59  61  63  65  67  68  69  68  68
RH..............82  80  72  67  64  62  60  59  56  58  59
20 FT wind dir..E   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  N
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.7   8   9   10  10  10  10  12  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.4 5.2 3.9 3.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   10  10  10  10  12  12  12  12

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5-10 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR.................30 percent.
Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North around 15 mph shifting to the northeast 5
                    to 15 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........74  67  60  53  44  35  26  24  22  20  23  26
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Temp............66  63  61  58  55  54  54  53  52  51  50  50
RH..............62  69  78  80  88  88  90  90  93  97  100 98
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   5   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.12  9   9   8   7   7   3   6   6   6   5   6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 2.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.12  13  13  14  10  7   5   5   6   7   7   7

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light east winds becoming southwest
                    5-15 mph in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......10000 to 10500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the south
                    early in the morning, then shifting to the west
                    late in the morning increasing to 10 to 15 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to very good late in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  24  19  14  11  8   6   8   10  12  10  9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............51  53  57  61  64  67  70  73  76  79  80  80
RH..............94  92  83  73  65  56  49  42  35  32  29  28
20 FT wind dir..NE  E   SE  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   5   5   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   7   9   10  12  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.1 6.9 8.7 11  9.9 9.2
Transp wind dir.NE  E   S   SW  SW  W   NW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   6   7   8   9   12  13  14  14  13

$$
Forecaster...EH
Requested by...Blake Cobb
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516107.0/UNR
.DELDT 06/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL blake.cobb@usda.gov