Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
876
FNUS73 KUNR 141511
FWSUNR
Spot Forecast for American Horse...SD-SDS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
911 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 MDT on June 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
DISCUSSION...Low clouds and fog is slowly beginning to thin as of
0900 this morning. This fog will dissipate by 1100 with temperatures
rapidly warming into the mid to upper 80s. Moisture continues to
stream into the area, resulting in higher daytime minimum relative
humidity (~40%). South-southeasterly winds will prevail through the
day with sustained winds around 10 to 15 mph and gusts 20 to 22 mph.
Thunderstorm chances increase over the fire location after 1700-1800
hours with hail, strong winds, lightning, and heavy rain all threats.
Given the nature of the storms, precipitation will be hit or miss.
However, ample moisture is available so that any stronger storms can
be expected to produce moderate to heavy rainfall.
Excellent overnight RH recovery expected tonight (~90%+) with mostly
cloudy skies; thunderstorm chances wane after 2200-2300 hours.
Warm and humid again Sunday with afternoon and evening thunderstorms
possible; strong winds, hail, lightning, and heavy rain are the main
hazards.
Near-daily chances of thunderstorms will persist into next week along
with a severe weather threat. Winds will shift from south-southeasterly
Monday morning, becoming north-northeasterly.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming mostly
sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog late in the
morning. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........40-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
around 21 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......4900 to 5400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
TIME (MDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 96 93 89 67 44 22 41 61
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY SCH
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG RW
Tstm cov........ SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............61 64 68 76 82 85 87 87 86
RH..............88 81 74 56 47 45 45 43 45
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE S S SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..12 12 12 10 10 10 12 13 14
20 FT wind gust.21 21 20 18 18 18 18 20 21
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.2 2.8 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.4 5.0 4.4
Transp wind dir.SE SE S S S S S SE SE
Transp wind spd.20 18 17 16 16 17 18 18 18
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms through late evening.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........90-95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South-southeast winds around 15 mph with gusts
to around 20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
CWR.................40 percent.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 25 mph shifting to the west 20 to
30 mph early in the evening, then becoming
south 10 to 15 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........80 83 85 87 82 77 71 69 67 64 63 62
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Temp............84 79 75 71 68 67 66 64 62 61 61 61
RH..............48 56 66 76 81 81 81 87 93 93 93 93
20 FT wind dir..SE SE S N SE S S N N S S S
20 FT wind spd..13 12 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.20 18 17 17 16 14 14 13 12 12 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SE S W W W SW SW SW S S S S
Transp wind spd.20 23 26 29 24 20 14 12 10 12 13 15
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........45-50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
east in the late morning and early afternoon,
then shifting to the southeast late in the
afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......4900 to 5400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60 50 39 28 31 33 36 36 36 36 47 58
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............61 63 66 70 73 76 79 82 84 86 86 86
RH..............93 93 87 76 71 64 58 53 49 46 46 46
20 FT wind dir..S S SE E E E E SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 13
20 FT wind gust.12 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 18 18 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.4 4.7 4.0
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.17 16 14 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 20 20
$$
Forecaster...SE
Requested by...Tony Thurnau
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2515972.0/UNR
.DELDT 06/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tony.thurnau@state.sd.us