217
FNUS73 KUNR 121903
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Centennial...USFS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
103 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 MDT on September 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop/move
into the region this afternoon. Some storms could be severe today,
with large hail and gusty winds being the main threats. Storms
could affect the spot location as early as 6 pm MDT, with
storms/showers expected to remain in the region into the overnight
hours. Outside of thunderstorms, winds today will be out of the
east to southeast and relatively light. Winds will become
out of the north. Showers are expected to remain over much of the
weekend, so good chance for wetting rain over the spot location,
with widespread precipitation expected on Sunday.


.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 10 mph with gusts to around
                    15 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......6300 to 6800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

TIME (MDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........42  44  46  54  68
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0
Temp............80  79  80  80  78
RH..............37  42  39  41  43
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.14  15  15  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 5.4 6.8 5.5 4.4
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  E   E
Transp wind spd.12  13  13  13  13

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the evening and
                    overnight, then chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms after 3 am.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph with gusts to around 13
                    mph decreasing to east around 5 mph with gusts
                    to around 10 mph early in the evening, then
                    shifting to the northeast with gusts to around
                    10 mph early in the evening shifting to the
                    north with gusts to around 12 mph in the late
                    evening and overnight shifting to the northwest
                    with gusts to around 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................55 percent.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest
                    late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    northwest overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........83  83  83  84  84  84  84  85  86  88  88  88
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
Temp............75  72  69  67  66  65  64  63  61  60  60  59
RH..............47  52  58  61  66  68  70  76  77  80  81  84
20 FT wind dir..E   E   NE  N   NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   NW
20 FT wind spd..5   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3
20 FT wind gust.13  10  10  10  12  12  7   12  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.13  12  12  10  10  9   8   8   9   9   9   9

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late
                    in the morning. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    east late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    south with gusts to around 10 mph late in the
                    morning increasing to south around 5 mph with
                    gusts to around 13 mph early in the afternoon
                    shifting to the southeast with gusts to around
                    15 mph shifting to the northeast with gusts to
                    around 14 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................20 percent.
Mixing height.......5800 to 6300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph shifting to the southwest
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    southeast late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........88  80  73  66  61  56  51  50  49  48  52  56
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............58  59  61  64  66  68  69  71  72  73  72  70
RH..............86  84  80  73  68  64  59  55  51  48  51  57
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  E   E   S   S   SE  S   SE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   2   2   3   3   5   5   5   5   3   3
20 FT wind gust.9   8   7   8   9   10  13  13  14  15  14  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 6.3 4.8 3.3
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SE
Transp wind spd.9   8   7   6   7   9   10  12  12  12  12  12

$$
Forecaster...AD
Requested by...USFS
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2521877.0/UNR
.DELDT 09/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL SDGPC@firenet.gov