525
FNUS73 KUNR 082127
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Shirt Tail Gulch RX...SDWF
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
227 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on December 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Winds this week will be the biggest concern. Winds
will increase Tuesday morning to 18 to 25 mph and then increase
more during the day to around 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph from the
west northwest. Winds will gradually decrease overnight into
Wednesday morning. Additionally, rain with mix with snow in the
morning, before turning over to all snow Tuesday afternoon. There
will be daily chances for snow the entire week, but there will
also be brisk winds (10-20 mph) most days.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain late in
                    the morning, then rain likely late in the
                    morning. Snow likely late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 18 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    around 40 mph, increasing to around 25 mph with
                    gusts around 45 mph in the afternoon and
                    becoming more northwest.
CWR.................40 percent.
Mixing height.......3700 to 4200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 55 to 60 mph shifting to the northwest 60
                    to 65 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good increasing to excellent late in the
                    afternoon, then decreasing to very good late in
                    the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  43  48  64  77  87  91  91  87
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
Temp............46  47  48  48  48  44  43  40  35
RH..............56  53  54  54  54  61  60  63  69
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..20  20  20  21  22  22  24  21  20
20 FT wind gust.36  36  37  38  39  40  45  40  37
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.3 2.7 2.6 3.4 4.2 3.6 3.0 2.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.51  54  58  61  63  64  63  61  59

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of snow
                    early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 26.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts
                    to around 40 mph shifting to the west 10 to 18
                    mph with gusts to around 30 mph overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......600 to 1100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 55 to 60 mph decreasing to around 30
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76  64  55  37  42  47  45  43  41  45  50  54
Weather cov.....                                            CHC
Weather type....                                            SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............33  33  32  31  31  31  31  30  29  28  28  27
RH..............72  69  66  66  66  66  65  65  65  67  69  71
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..20  21  22  22  21  19  16  13  13  12  11  10
20 FT wind gust.33  35  37  38  40  34  27  22  22  21  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.58  55  54  53  51  48  45  41  38  35  31  28

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of snow
                    in the morning, then snow late in the morning.
                    Rain and snow late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 40.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    south late in the morning, then increasing to
                    south around 10 mph late in the morning
                    shifting to the southwest late in the
                    afternoon. Gusts up to 18 mph.
CWR.................50 percent.
Mixing height.......1400 to 1900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 25 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 15 mph late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 15 to 20 mph late in the morning
                    shifting to the west 25 to 30 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65  75  86  87  88  89  90  92  93  93  92  92
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  RS  RS  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
Temp............27  27  28  31  33  35  36  36  36  37  38  39
RH..............71  70  67  63  58  56  59  64  69  72  73  74
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..10  8   8   7   7   7   8   9   9   10  10  12
20 FT wind gust.18  16  14  13  13  13  14  15  16  16  15  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.8
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.22  17  13  12  12  12  12  13  15  20  24  26

$$
Forecaster...MS
Requested by...Jake Murdie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2527180.0/UNR
.DELDT 12/08/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jake.murdie@state.sd.us