829
FNUS73 KUNR 151144
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Kicken Draw Wildfire...BLM
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
544 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is just north of the fire area early this morning.
The cold front will cross the fire area around 700 AM creating
gusty northerly winds up to 25 mph. Thunderstorm chances develop
this afternoon, most likely after 300 PM with at least good
chances for wetting rains tonight and Wednesday when much cooler
temperatures are expected. Any thunderstorms may have gusty,
erratic winds.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts around
                    25 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................25 percent.
Mixing height.......3200 to 3700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........42  51  60  68  68  68  67  60  53  45  52  58
Weather cov.....                        SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............61  64  66  67  68  68  68  68  68  68  68  68
RH..............75  73  75  78  80  81  81  81  81  81  81  78
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..8   9   12  13  14  15  15  15  15  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.13  15  18  22  23  23  23  24  23  23  23  22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.3 2.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.5
Transp wind dir.NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.15  20  24  26  26  24  23  22  22  22  22  22

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers.
                    and a chance of thunderstorms.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    southeast.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................85 percent.
Mixing height.......1300 to 1800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 15 to 25 mph shifting to the west 15
                    to 20 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........64  70  76  82  86  91  96  93  89  86  91  95
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80
Temp............68  68  65  62  60  58  57  56  56  55  55  55
RH..............78  78  84  90  90  96  100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..14  14  13  12  10  9   8   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.22  21  20  18  18  15  13  14  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   W   SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.22  21  21  20  18  16  14  15  16  17  16  14

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers
                    and a chance of thunderstorms.
                    Patchy fog early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South 5 to 15 mph becoming north
                    10 to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................55 percent.
Mixing height.......3000 to 3500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph shifting to the north
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........99  95  86  84  96  93  90  87  84  81  78  76
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60
Temp............55  56  58  59  59  59  60  61  62  62  62  62
RH..............100 100 100 96  100 100 96  90  87  84  84  81
20 FT wind dir..S   W   NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  14  15  16  17  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.8 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.13  13  15  16  17  17  18  18  17  17  17  17

$$
Forecaster...EH
Requested by...Eric Mark
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518038.0/UNR
.DELDT 07/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL eric_mark@fws.gov