963
FNUS73 KUNR 152233
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Creek Fire...Wyoming State Forestry Division
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
433 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2300 MDT on June 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...The chance for showers and thunderstorms has
diminished for the day. However, a cold front will sweep across
the burn area around 9 PM this evening with gusty northwest winds
to about 35 mph. Dry and cooler weather expected Sunday, but a
strong weather disturbance will bring a good chance for
showers/storms Sunday night into Monday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Decreasing clouds (15-25 percent), with
                    cold front passage about 9 PM MDT.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest to west winds 10 to 20 mph, with
                    gusts to 30 mph. Winds shifting northwest
                    15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph
                    around 9 PM MDT. Winds slowly decreasing
                    after midnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......700 to 1200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 30 mph, becoming northwest
                    25 to 40 mph after 9 PM MDT.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    south in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4700 to 5200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................30 percent.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 20 mph increasing to east
                    around 30 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 24
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the morning.
CWR.................20 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1200, then 1.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2000 to 2500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

$$
Forecaster...JJ
Requested by...Jeremy Dedic
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416066.4/UNR
.DELDT 06/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeremy.dedic@wyo.gov