636
FNUS73 KUNR 142317
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Creek Fire...Wyoming State Forestry Division
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
517 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2300 MDT on June 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Wind directions and speeds are expected to be
erratic through the evening as showers/storm move east off the
Bighorns with an outflow boundary likely to push across the burn
area mid-evening. The best chances for showers/storms will be
through late evening, with drier conditions overnight. A few
showers/storms again possible Saturday afternoon, with some gusty
northwest winds by late evening as a cold front pushes through.
Mostly dry conditions expected Sunday, but good chances for
showers/storms arrive Sunday night.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until midnight, then
                    becoming partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until about 10 PM.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph early in the evening,
                    shifting northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts around
                    35 mph around 900 PM. Then gradually turning northeast
                    then southeast around 10 mph by midnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................25 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................15 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......10500 to 11000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph increasing to around 25
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph shifting
                    to the northwest late in the evening. Gusts up
                    to 36 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 25 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 35 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). (A very good chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night)
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 17 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4900 to 5400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

$$
Forecaster...JJ
Requested by...Jeremy Dedic
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416066.3/UNR
.DELDT 06/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeremy.dedic@wyo.gov