187
FXUS65 KVEF 151133
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
433 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures will decrease through the remainder of the week,
  before slowly increasing over the weekend.

* An increase in monsoonal moisture later in the week will result in
  increased chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

* Gusty southerly winds today will result in areas of critical fire
  weather concerns across portions of southern Nevada.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.

Temperatures will average 1-3 degrees cooler today compared to
Monday, and this downward trend will continue through the end of the
week.  By Friday, high temperatures will dip to below normal levels
with afternoon highs topping out around 100F in Las Vegas (there is
a 40% chance of the high on Friday remaining less than 100F).
Temperatures will slowly rebound over the weekend and return to near
normal levels by early next week.   Hazy skies will continue over
much of the region as smoke from area wildfires continues to be
transported into the area.  The highest concentrations of smoke are
expected in the Colorado River Valley and Mohave County today and
tomorrow, but this will be highly dependent on the intensity of the
fire activity in the coming days.

Moisture spreading up from southern Arizona will result in a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow across far
eastern portions of Mohave County.  By late tomorrow, a cut-off area
of low pressure is forecast to develop off Baja California, which
will help to spread increased moisture levels into portions of the
region for the second half of the week.  The best chance of
precipitation in the Las Vegas valley appears to be on Friday,
although a few isolated storms will be possible over the higher
terrain in southern Nevada by Thursday afternoon. Beyond Friday,
there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how much and how
long the moisture will remain in place. Still, the threat of a few
storms will likely persist through the weekend, especially over
northwest Arizona.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A short wave moving through the Great Basin today
will result in gusty southwest winds across portions of the southern
Great Basin.  A dry airmass will also remain in place, and afternoon
relative humidity values of 7 to 14 percent will be common. The
combination of these two factors will result in critical fire
weather conditions across Nevada Fire Weather Zones 461 and 462, and
a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for these areas through this
evening. Breezy south winds are also expected along the lower
Colorado River Valley this afternoon, leading to some elevated fire
weather concerns.  However, wind speeds are expected to remain below
Red Flag Criteria, and RH values in the valley will be a bit higher
in the afternoon, with values of 12 to 25 percent expected.  Fire
Weather concerns will decrease later in the week as increased
moisture levels spread over the area and afternoon RH values
increase to greater than 25 percent by Friday.

&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...South
winds will remain elevated through the morning, with gusts of 20 to
25 knots becoming predominant around mid morning. Wind direction
could also back around to about 160 degrees true, giving just enough
of an easterly component to cause runway configuration concerns.
Winds should veer to 180-210 true late in the afternoon, with gusts
persisting well into the night. VFR conditions expected, with the
only concern being a smoke layer aloft which could cause slantwise
visibility concerns. Temperatures above 100F between 19Z and 05Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 12z Forecast Package...South to
southwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots will be common around the
region this afternoon through tonight, decreasing only slightly on
Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances should be limited to the eastern
fringes of Mohave County today, spreading as far west as Kingman and
increasing in coverage on Wednesday. Smoke aloft will continue to
cause reduced slantwise visibility roughly southeast of Interstate
15. VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms and smoke.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Morgan
FIRE WEATHER...Planz

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