041
FXUS65 KVEF 162327
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
425 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive this
  afternoon and linger into Thursday morning with a focus across our
  eastern zones.

* Elsewhere, expect breezy to south-southwesterly wind gusts until
  the weekend with dry conditions and near-normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.

Shower and storm activity looks to build this afternoon in Mohave Co
with initial convection starting southeast of Lake Havasu and
spreading north through the late afternoon, and reaching Lincoln Co
into the night. Fairly strong CAPE is making a good environment for
thunderstorm growth, but the lack of sheer may prevent some storms
from reaching severe status. The main threat from these storms looks
to be the potential for flooding as storms could train over certain
areas. Additional threats will be frequent lighting and locally
strong gusts from stronger cells. While Mohave and Lincoln counties
look to be the focus of the convection, isolated cells could cross
into Clark Co, along with a few storms building along higher terrain
in western Clark Co into Nye Co. Shower activity will stay with
Lincoln and Clark counties through the night and through much of
Thursday morning before dissipating.


The active weather this afternoon and through the night comes along
a pattern shift with a low passing over the area and a period of
troughing to follow. This pattern will favor windy conditions today
and tonight with widespread winds reaching 20 mph and gusts peaking
around 35 mph. Some of the favored gaps and passes along with higher
terrain could briefly exceed 40 mph gusts. Winds look to reduce
slightly for most areas into the night, but the higher terrain will
stay windy. Widespread gusts will pickup again Thursday afternoon,
but uniformly reduce that night. Friday afternoon looks to be breezy
as well, but overall winds ease into the weekend itself. The
troughing pattern will keep high temperatures close to average for
this time of year, but lows will still trend on the warmer side.



&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...
Forecast is currently on track for today as SSW winds 10-15 kt
prevail across the Valley with gusts nearing 30 kt at times. Expect
gusts to diminish and drop off after 03z, however sustained winds
may remain elevated into tonight 08-15 kt. Evening thunderstorm
activity is ongoing east of the terminal over northwestern Arizona
and the Mormon Mesa corridor. Not currently expecting outflow from
storms to impact the Valley, but will monitor the evolution of
storms closely. FEW-SCT clouds with bases around 10kft can be
expected this afternoon and tonight, with temperatures remaining
under 100 degrees. Similar wind pattern expected tomorrow with light
SE winds during the morning, increasing after 16z, then shifting to
the S-SW around 19-21z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Stronger south winds 10-
20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt have developed this afternoon for many
terminals, as is expected in this summertime wind pattern. Gusts
should diminish 02-03z, however sustained winds may remain elevated
into tonight at 10-15 kt, especially in the CRV. Typical daily wind
pattern continues for KDAG as the westerly push has already begun.
Expect W winds with gusts exceeding 20 kts through the next several
hours before diminishing overnight. Thunderstorms are ongoing this
evening over Mohave Co AZ and may be in the vicinity of KIFP and
KEED before 04z; therefore keeping a Prob30 for VRB winds and TSRA.
Will monitor the evolution of storms and associated outflow
boundaries in the case they near any KIFP or KEED. Currently not
expecting outflow impacts to Las Vegas Valley sites. FEW-SCT clouds
with bases at or above 10kft are expected this evening onward for
most of the region, with lower ceilings and greater coverage in the
vicinity of thunderstorms. Similar daily wind pattern expected
tomorrow at all terminals.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Murdock
AVIATION...Moore

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