016
FXUS65 KVEF 122155
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
255 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy south-southwesterly wind gusts will continue through the
  week with dry conditions and near-normal temperatures.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

A closed area of low pressure is pushing into the Pacific Northwest
this weekend, which will result in the associated trough axis
pushing through the southern Great Basin this weekend. As a result,
expect elevated south-southwesterly winds with gust speeds generally
between 25 and 35 mph, with occasional instances of gusts around 40
mph in the higher terrain. Generalized troughing will continue over
the region through the first half of the week, which will return
afternoon breezes each day and bring temperatures back to within a
few degrees of seasonal normals. Due to the persistent dry
conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect through the remainder of
the day for our northwestern zones. Please see the FIRE WEATHER
section below for more information. The monsoonal high pressure over
the southern United States will shift westward for the second half
of the week, which will set up a favored flow for moisture to surge
up the Colorado River Valley into our forecast area. That said, only
about half of the ECMWF and GFS ensemble members indicate a moisture
resurgence worth noting, so confidence in resultant precipitation
chances is low.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
Breezy south to southwest winds are expected through the
afternoon. Gusts over 20KT are likely (80% chance) with a low
chance (20%) for gusts over 25KT. South winds will diminish after
sunset slightly but will gust through most of the night. Similar
winds are expected Sunday with south to southwest winds gusting
over 20KT Sunday late morning and afternoon. Dry conditions with
VFR skies persisting through the period. Temperatures will exceed
100 degrees between 20Z and 02Z today and Sunday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy south to
southwest winds are expected through the afternoon with widespread
gusts 20-30KT. KDAG will see a lag in gusts, not seeing gusts
develop until around 00Z. Winds will drop back this evening but will
remain elevated in many locations overnight as south winds over 10KT
persist through the night. The exception will be the Colorado River
Valley where light south to southeast winds are expected after 09Z.
Similar winds are expected on Sunday as southerly to southwesterly
gusts develop late morning and continue through the afternoon. VFR
skies with no precipitation expected through the period.
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning continues for Esmeralda, southern
Nye, southwestern Lincoln, and Clark counties through 12 AM /
Midnight tonight. Afternoon relative humidities will range from the
upper-single-digits to lower-teens across the southwestern Great
Basin and central Mojave Deserts today. Meanwhile, expect south-
southwest winds between 15 and 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Cannot
rule out occasional gusts to 40 mph in the higher terrain. Winds
decrease overnight and relative humidities recover between 30 and 40
percent. Considered a Red Flag Warning for Sunday, but the locations
with combined dry conditions (15 percent RH or lower) and elevated
winds will be isolated in time and space. That said, caution is
encouraged when recreating with sparks or flames.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Nickerson

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