160
FXUS65 KVEF 130451
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
951 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to
  continue through the day today.

* A cold front will push through the region tonight, bringing
  gusty northwest winds and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Rachel continues to
linger across the forecast area today, with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms possible across southeastern
California, southern Nevada, and northwestern Arizona. Chances
decrease across our southern zones after sunset, with persistent
chances of showers and thunderstorms in the southern Great Basin
overnight. In general, rain rates should remain light-to-moderate,
though with thunderstorm formation, can`t rule out locally heavy
rainfall. Soils are saturated across the region from heavy rain
experienced yesterday. As a result, it is likely that any
moderate-to-heavy rain that falls today will cause nuisance
ponding and/or isolated instances of flash flooding. Sprinkles-to-
light rain possible through Tuesday morning before skies begin to
clear and the region dries out.

An upper-level trough and associated cold front will push
southeastward through the forecast area tonight, bringing with it
gusty northwest winds and much cooler temperatures. Gusty winds
will peak Tuesday morning across northern Inyo, Esmeralda, and
central Nye counties, with gust speeds between 30 and 40 mph.
Northwesterly winds will spread through the whole forecast area
through the day, with speeds between 20 and 30 mph. These winds
(encouraging mixing of warmer air above the surface), coupled with
cloud cover sticking around through the first portion of the
overnight period (trapping warm air at the surface beneath them)
will likely prevent Bishop from freezing tonight. As a result,
have cancelled the Freeze Watch for the northern Owens Valley and
reissued it for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, when winds
have subsided and skies have cleared. The Freeze Watch for
Esmeralda and central Nye tonight into Tuesday morning looks good
and has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning. Temperatures will
bottom out across the region on Tuesday, with highs for desert
valleys in the upper-60s to low-70s. Temperatures will gradually
climb through the remainder of the work week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Southwesterly winds around 10KT will continue tonight,
with a cold front between 14Z-16Z expected to result in a sharp
north-northwesterly wind shift. Gusts up to 25-30KT can be
expected along and in the wake of the front through late
afternoon, as well as a brief period of lower ceilings around
7-8kft and vicinity showers as the front moves through the Valley.
Skies clear through the afternoon with gusts diminishing through
the evening and VFR conditions prevailing thereafter.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Overnight, wind gusts
diminish  across the region with wind speeds around 5-10KT, with
the exception of KDAG, where elevated/gusty westerly winds
continue through Tuesday morning. A cold front moving into the
region will result in gusty northerly to northwesterly winds,
first impacting the southern Great Basin and Owens Valley/KBIH
overnight tonight, progressing southward through the Las Vegas
Valley by 14Z-16Z, and through the Lower Colorado River Valley by
early afternoon. Gusts to 25-30KT will be common in the wake of
the front, with these winds persisting through the afternoon
before diminishing. While gusts will diminish through the evening
for all bit KBIH due to terrain effects, northerly winds remain
elevated between 10-15KT through the end of the period. Isolated
showers remain possible Tuesday, mainly across the southern Great
Basin and northwestern Arizona, with additional showers possible
across southern Nevada with the cold front. Clear skies are
expected to return areawide by early evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Phillipson

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