783
FXUS65 KVEF 170908
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
108 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Forecast snowfall accumulations have increased for elevations
  above 6000 feet today through early Wednesday, resulting in
  upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings.

* Light-to-moderate rainfall expected today across our western
  zones, spreading to the rest of the forecast area on Tuesday with
  increased thunderstorm potential.

* A brief break expected on Wednesday before another weather system
  approaches the region late-week, though details are uncertain at
  this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

This next system has continued to trend slower and is now projected
to take on a more similar track as our weekend system did. The
center of the low will glide down the Southern California coast
through the day today. The initial round of precipitation will occur
as the trough axis hits the eastern Sierra slopes mid-to-late this
morning with snow levels between 6500 and 7500 feet. Totals in the
eastern Sierra slopes and White Mountains have only modestly
changed, but have increased enough to warrant an upgrade from a
Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning. Spillover
precipitation will result in light evening snowfall for Esmeralda
County, Spring Mountains and Sheep Range. The second round of
precipitation will occur early Tuesday morning as the center of the
low swings southeastward around the Sierra Nevada, allowing moisture
to surge up the Colorado River Valley into the Mojave Desert. This
moisture flux will occur as the cold front pushes through the
forecast area, dropping snow levels to around 6000 feet. Without the
shield of the Sierra Nevada, this south-southeasterly flow over the
region will allow for much greater mountain snowfall accumulations
in southwestern Nevada than previously expected. As such, the Winter
Weather Advisories for Esmeralda, Spring Mountains, and Sheep Range
have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. To compare to the
previous forecast discussion, the chances of 8 inches of storm total
snowfall in Kyle and Lee Canyons are now 90% and 95%, respectively.

Precipitation will make it up and over the Sierra crest today,
resulting in light-to-moderate rainfall in the western Mojave Desert
and southwestern Great Basin below 6500 feet. As the center of the
low digs southeastward, wrap-around bands of showers and
thunderstorms will push northward into southern Mohave and San
Bernardino counties tonight. These bands will continue spreading
northward through the day on Tuesday, bringing rainfall to the
entire forecast area. Rain rates on Tuesday will be moderate-to-
heavy at times, with heavier rain in the higher terrain and co-
located with thunderstorms. Precipitation chances linger in our
eastern zones Wednesday morning as the system jogs eastward.

A brief break in precipitation is expected on Wednesday before
another closed low approaches the region late-week. There remains
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the timing and track of this
system, and thus, precipitation amounts. This weekend into early-
next week, ridging will return to the region, allowing
temperatures to gradually climb back toward seasonal normals.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Southerly breezes continue overnight with scattered to broken clouds
around 6kft. Probability for CIGs aob 6kft around 40% through 14z.
Winds should be lightest during the morning hours, becoming breezy
in the afternoon as they turn to the southeast. Probability of 10+
knots from a 120-160 direction is greater than 70% from 19z through
02z. CIGs around 6-7kft return during the afternoon, gradually
dropping overnight as precipitation chances increase.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Across the Mojave Desert
tonight, southerly to westerly breezes continue with few to
scattered clouds between 6-8kft. Across the southern Great Basin and
portions of the Owens Valley, expecting scattered to broken clouds
between 3-6kft. On Monday, southerly to easterly breezes encompass
the area, strongest across our western zones where gusts 15-30 knots
are expected. Precipitation will begin to spill over the Sierra
during the afternoon and evening hours, bringing reduced CIGs and
visibilities.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Woods

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