466
FXUS65 KVEF 110518
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1018 PM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and storms continue a flash flood threat through
  Saturday, mainly for areas along and east of the Interstate 15
  corridor.

* Moisture and precipitation chances get flushed out on Sunday as a
  trough swings through, leaving below-normal temperatures in its
  wake.

* Precipitation chances and gusty winds return mid-week as a more
  traditional cool-season, Pacific system approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.

Scattered showers and storms continue today, largely confined to San
Bernardino, Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave counties. Like yesterday,
relatively strong flow aloft will keep precipitation moving off to
the northeast, so the ability for convection to train over the same
area is going to dictate the flash flood threat. This morning`s
guidance suggests that the greatest potential for training storms is
broadly along the I-15 corridor. Satellite imagery shows widespread
clouds southeast of I-15, and notable breaks in the cloud cover
along and northwest of the interstate. These breaks should allow for
instability to develop along the corridor this afternoon, and the
differential heating boundary may act as a subtle forcing mechanism
for storms. Farther southeast, abundant clouds will limit
instability and likely keep precipitation in more of a stratiform
mode, thus tempering the flash flood threat. Storms should begin to
taper off after sunset this evening, but showers may linger
overnight. As the next trough begins to move in tomorrow, moisture
and precipitation chances get pushed into Mohave County and eastern
Lincoln County. A lingering, isolated flash flood threat (~10%)
persists, but will be lower than today`s risk.

By Sunday, the aforementioned trough will have swung through the
area, scouring out moisture and leaving precipitation chances below
10% areawide. The drier airmass in its wake will also be notably
cooler, with highs on Sunday roughly 10 degrees lower than Saturday.
These below-normal temperatures are forecast to persist throughout
next week, especially with another trough set to dig along the
Pacific Coast. This system brings precipitation chances (20-50%) to
the western half of our CWA, with chances increasing as you head
west. In eastern Mohave County, the remnants of another tropical
system bring 20-40% PoPs on Monday, but the bulk of precipitation is
expected across central and southern Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
rain showers will continue to push out of the valley for the next
few hours, completely clearing out of the vicinity by early
tomorrow morning. Visibility reductions at the surface will be
possible through early tomorrow as light winds and low dewpoint
depressions will make it possible for isolated pockets of fog to
develop. Guidance shows possible pockets of MVFR visibility
reductions around the valley overnight. Light and variable winds
will pick up and swing around to the southwest early Saturday
afternoon. Breezy southwesterly winds will continue to into the
early evening when 20- 30 knot gusts will drop off. Eventually
winds will swing around to a more northerly direction overnight as
a front moves through the valley.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers will
continue across northwestern Arizona through early tomorrow morning.
 Outside of convective influence, winds will remain relatively light
(12 knots or less) through the overnight period. Pockets of MVFR to
IFR visibility reductions will be possible across southeastern
Nevada and northwestern Arizona as fog develops overnight. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across northwestern
Arizona tomorrow afternoon. Gusty outflow winds, lightning, rain and
brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible should any storms move
directly over TAF sites tomorrow. Gusty southerly winds will pick up
across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona late tomorrow
morning/early tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile gusty westerly winds
across the western Mojave Desert. A front will swing through the
area with gusty northerly to northwesterly in the Owens Valley and
across Nye and Esmeralda Counties tomorrow.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Stessman

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