341
FXUS65 KVEF 291031
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
330 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and seasonable conditions continue through this afternoon.

* Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures return to the region
  late this week and continue through the weekend.

* Breezy, cool, and dry conditions return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.

The flow will become more southwest over the next couple of days as
a trough over the eastern Pacific pushes toward the west coast. This
will bring an increase in mid and high level moisture to the region
through today yielding mostly cloudy skies for much of the area.
Additional moisture from TS Vance will also push northward up the
Colorado River Valley bringing increasing PWs through the day today,
but precipitation is likely to hold off until late tonight into
Friday. Temperatures will remain near normal through Friday.

The aforementioned moisture associated with Vance will result in PWs
increasing to around 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal for
late October, resulting in a return of shower and thunderstorm
chances across Mohave County and portions of Clark and Lincoln
County late Thursday night and continuing into Saturday; however,
the greatest threat of shower and thunderstorm activity does look to
remain over northwest Arizona. The aforementioned trough will
continue deepening along the West Coast, developing into a split
flow scenario with a secondary shortwave developing near southern
California, while the core of the trough remains over the Pacific
Northwest. Additional moisture is expected to be pulled into the
region with PWs generally around 200-250% of normal for this time of
year. The one thing we will have to watch is where the secondary
shortwave off the southern California coast ends up, which would
determine what areas have the better chance of seeing widespread
precipitation. The EC is the most bullish model with widespread
precipitation developing over much of the southern and eastern areas
of the forecast area Saturday afternoon into Sunday. The GFS is
currently slower with the trough progression and really keeps much
of the moisture into the far eastern areas of the forecast area and
especially Arizona. This also leads to plenty of uncertainty in just
how much precipitation will occur, with the current forecast ranging
from around a quarter to a half inch across lower elevations, and up
to an inch and a half in the mountains and localized spots across
Mohave and eastern Lincoln counties, where precipitation will be
prolonged. Again, any change to the overall trajectory of this
system could significantly alter precipitation amounts.

Mountain snow is also a possibility with this system, but with the
initial southwest flow, snow levels are expected to remain around
8500 feet or higher, with the potential of seeing a few inches of
snow above 9000 feet. However, snow levels are expected to drop to
around 7500 feet by Sunday evening, but at this time, most of the
precipitation is expected to have pushed east of the area with only
light accumulations expected.

As the trough departs the region early next week, a tightening
gradient on its western periphery is expected to result in breezy
to gusty conditions on Monday, especially across the southern
Great Basin. Gusty conditions are expected to diminish through
Monday evening for most, though terrain-enhanced gusts through the
Lower Colorado River Valley may persist into Tuesday. Cooler
temperatures will also stick around early next week, in spite of
shortwave ridging progged to build over the region in the wake of
the departing trough. Highs will remain around 5 degrees below
normal for most through Tuesday with dry conditions expected.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Overall,
winds will be light and follow typical diurnal variations through
the TAF period. Speeds for the most part should remain below 8
knots; however, an occasional, short-lived gust to 15 knots cannot
be ruled out later this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail into
Friday, with SCT to BKN clouds and bases remaining AOA 15kft AGL.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light winds will persist
across the region through the morning. Most areas will see a
continuation of light winds this afternoon, although occasional
gusts to 20 knots will be seen at times in the Owens Valley and
Colorado River Valley. All areas should see winds diminish after
sunset and remain light overnight. VFR conditions will prevail into
Friday, with SCT to BKN clouds and bases generally remaining AOA
15kft AGL.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow/Phillipson
AVIATION...Planz


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