516
FXUS65 KVEF 040517
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1017 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the
  region into tonight, with a few showers possible over the far
  southern Great Basin and Sierra.

* Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend
  before rising back to near normal levels next week.

* Dry weather is expected from tomorrow through at least Wednesday.
  By the second half of next week there is the potential for
  tropical moisture to move into the Desert Southwest, but a lot of
  uncertainty remains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.

An upper-level area of low pressure centered east of the Bay Area
will continue to move east tonight and Saturday.  Ahead of this
system, gusty southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph are ongoing across
southern Nevada and portions of southeast California. Wind
advisories remain in effect for the Spring Mountains and the western
Mohave Desert through this evening, and will expand to include the
Mojave Preserve and Morongo Basin/Twentynine Palms this evening.
Gusty winds are also possible along the US-95 corridor between Las
Vegas and Mercury due to downslope flow off the Spring Mountains.
Winds will diminish overnight and Saturday morning as the low moves
east.  Farther north, scattered showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms remain possible through sunset across the southern
Great Basin and along the higher ridges of the Sierra and White
Mountains. Precipitation amounts will be light, and no significant
impacts are anticipated.  However, a few inches of early season snow
are also possible over the highest Sierra peaks.

As this low exits the region to the northeast, a broad weak trough
will linger, maintaining relatively low 500mb heights for this time
of year, and keep temperatures below seasonable norms into the first
half of the week. Readings will rebound to near normal levels by
Wednesday as a ridge develops over the Southwest.

Confidence decreases for the second half of the week as a trough of
low pressure approaches the West Coast, while a potential tropical
system moves north near the Baja Peninsula. The interaction of these
two systems will determine conditions for the end of the week.  If
the trough remains weaker and farther north, more ridging would
remain in place across the Southwest likely steering the tropical
system away from the region.  However, if the trough is stronger and
further south, moisture from the tropical system could be funneled
up into our area bringing the potential for rain next weekend. Stay
tuned to see how the interactions of these two systems play out.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...West to
southwest winds should persist through much of the night- while
gusts should be done, elevated winds around 10KT should continue.
Sometime early Saturday morning, winds should become northwest as a
front moves through, likely between 12Z and 15Z. Winds will not gust
though until after sunrise. Gusts to around 20KT are likely during
the late morning, followed by speeds decreasing Saturday afternoon
and evening. Light winds return by Saturday after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with FEW-SCT clouds
around 25kft AGL into tonight, then becoming SKC tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will remain
elevated across the western Mojave Desert through the night, with
speeds at 10-20KT and gusts up to 30KT though. Elsewhere, winds
should stop gusting with speeds at 10-15KT. A cold front moving
south into the region will be accompanied by a northwesterly wind
shift, which is expected to move through southern Nevada terminals
Saturday morning and the Colorado River Valley sites by midday
Saturday. Breezy winds are expected Saturday morning with gusts up
to 20KT before winds slowly diminish in the afternoon and evening.
VFR conditions will prevail in most areas with FEW-SCT clouds around
25kft through tonight, then becoming mainly SKC tomorrow.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Nickerson

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