034
FXUS65 KVEF 272217
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
317 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures will continue to gradually increase each day
  through Monday.

* Moisture will slowly push into the region from the east next
  week, resulting in increased chances for isolated afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms in Mohave County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Friday.

The gradual warming trend of the past few days will continue through
the weekend and into early next week as a ridge of high pressure
continues to nudge its way into the region. Temperatures across the
area will peak on Monday, with afternoon high temperatures around
3 to 7 degrees above normal for late June. Beyond Monday,
temperatures will decrease as a cut-off low pushes into California
and eventually into our forecast area. The speed at which
temperatures decrease will depend on how strong the low pressure
system is when it moves in and how quickly it pushes into the
area. Current guidance shows a gradual decrease, with temperatures
slowly "cooling" back down to normal by late next week.

With a cut-off low off the coast of California and ridging over the
eastern portions of our forecast area, we will find ourselves under
southerly to southeasterly flow aloft. This will be a change from
the dry southwesterly flow we have been under, which will allow
for moisture to begin pushing into the area early next week. Long
term guidance continues to vary from run to run and ensemble to
ensemble regarding when exactly we will see moisture increase and
just how much moisture we can expect. This is due to variability
regarding the timing, strength, and orientation of the cut-off
low relative to the ridge; all of which will play a role in when
and how much moisture pushes into our forecast area. Currently,
Mohave County has the best shot at seeing isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...In
general, winds will tend to follow typical diurnal (daily)
directional patterns with southeasterly winds during the day and
southwesterly winds during the evening and overnight period. Wind
speeds may occasionally approach and exceed 10 knots into the
evening hours before speeds start dropping off overnight. Wind
direction may become more variable, ranging from ENE to SSW, late
tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon before winds settle in
from the southeast. Clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail
through TAF period. Temperatures on Saturday will exceed 100F
between 20Z and 03Z, peaking around 105F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. Winds across the region will tend
to favor typical, diurnal (daily) directional trends. Most
locations will see wind speeds of 12 knots or less with gusts
around 20 to 25 knots possible through the early evening hours.
With the exception of the western Mojave Desert, winds will
generally decrease after sunset and into the overnight hours.
Winds across the western Mojave Desert will pick up and swing to
the west during the early evening hours with gusts around 25 knots
continuing through late tonight before dropping off during the
overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Stessman


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