650
FXUS65 KVEF 080747
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1247 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will gradually break down this weekend as
a trough approaches the West Coast, ending the worst of the heat
wave. However, hotter temperatures are expected to return for the
middle of the upcoming week before falling again late in the week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Midnight satellite loop showed
mid and high clouds from north of Barstow through Death Valley and
across Nye County into Lincoln County. The coldest cloud tops,
remnants of thunderstorms which persisted into late evening, were
over central Nye County. Surface obs showed locally gusty winds
under and around the dying convection and temperatures a few degrees
cooler than 24 hours ago. For this afternoon, forecast HeatRisk
values continue to trend slowly downward, and the leftover clouds
could influence this as well. Regardless, will keep the Excessive
Heat Warning in place through this evening. The worst of this heat
wave has passed, but with little or no overnight relief, heat stress
could still be accumulating in vulnerable groups. High temperatures
will be a few degrees lower today than yesterday and a few degrees
lower Sunday than today, with highs Sunday approximately seven to 10
degrees cooler than at the peak of the heat wave on Thursday. High
resolution models continue the trend of showing fewer thunderstorms
today than yesterday and fewer still on Sunday, with chances both
days likely confined to the Sierra crest and the northern fringes of
our CWA. Breezy southerly winds each afternoon will lead to elevated
fire danger, but will not be enough to cause red flag conditions.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

A trough of low pressure will cut off near the Baja California coast
early in the week. As it drifts off the coast, high pressure will
wrap around and build over the CWA for Tuesday and Wednesday,
bringing hot temperatures again to the region. Temperatures may
return to around 10 degrees above climatological normal by
Wednesday. The cutoff low finally ejects northeastward on Thursday,
dampening the ridge and bringing gusty southerly wind to the area.
This will also begin a slight cooling trend and the low moves in and
weakens. While this cutoff low will develop over the ocean, it
doesn`t seem to have a lot of moisture associated with it, but will
have considerable dynamics associated with it. Thunderstorms,
perhaps dry thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but it is early and
we`ll have to see how the forecast develops over the next several
days.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds will give way
to SE breezes later this morning. Chance of 10+ knot sustained winds
remains below 50% until 21z. SE breezes of 8-12 knots with gusts up
to 20 knots are likely (75% chance) from 21z through about 00z-01z,
when winds are expected to shift to the SSW. SSW breezes persist
through the night, gradually weakening with time. FEW-SCT mid-level
and high clouds, with bases aoa 12 kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy south-southeast winds at most area TAF sites
late this morning and afternoon, with gusts up to 20-25 knots. The
exception to this is KDAG, where the wind direction will be west or
southwest through the period. At KBIH, vicinity convection may send
westerly or northwesterly outflow through the airport this afternoon.
Rain chances currently stand at 25%, but the chance of outflow winds
reaching the airfield are closer to 50-60%. Scattered clouds around
10 kft with broken clouds above, while the rest of the sites should
only see FEW-SCT clouds aoa 12 kft.
&&

.CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum
temperatures have been tied or broken this week. The table below
shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum
temperature for today, June 8.

RECORD HIGH     SAT, JUNE 8
                Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       112(2013)
Bishop          105(2016)
Needles         118(1955)
Barstow-Daggett 113(2013)
Kingman         107(1955)
Death Valley    123(2013)

RECORD WARM     SAT, JUNE 8
LOW             Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       84(2016)
Bishop          64(2014)
Needles         85(2013)
Barstow-Daggett 77(2016)
Kingman         74(1927)
Death Valley    94(2022)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Berc
AVIATION...Woods

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