863
FXUS65 KVEF 251130
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
430 AM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the week.

* Best chance of storms is along and south of I-15 today, with
  diminishing odds afterwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through the weekend.

High pressure is expected to expand back into the region with
increasing heights leading to well above normal temperatures
through Friday. This will lead to widespread areas of Major
(Level 3 of 4) to Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk through Friday
and an Extreme Heat Warning currently in effect. This means highs
in the upper 100s to mid 110s and lows in the mid 80s to low 90s
in the valleys across the Mojave Desert including Las Vegas.
Numerous daily high records and warm minimum temperature records
are in jeopardy - see the CLIMATE section below for details. An
approaching trough this weekend will help to bring lowering
heights allowing temperatures to cool a few degrees by early next
week with readings close to normal for this time of year.

PWATs will still remain fairly elevated through mid-week with
readings around 1 to 1.25 inches generally south and east of I-15.
We should continue to see decent CAPE values around 300-800 J/kg
this afternoon across Lincoln, Clark, Mohave, and eastern San
Bernardino counties with the higher terrain favored for any storm
development, although storms will generally remain isolated. With
the fairly deep moisture still in place, some storms could produce
flash flooding. As the upper level high builds through the week
we will see increasing warming aloft which will help to suppress
thunderstorm development. Some isolated storms are possible again
Wednesday, but will generally become more isolated. Moisture will
gradually decrease later in the week with dry southwesterly flow,
reducing precipitation potential even further as we head into the
latter part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds
will follow typical daily directional patterns through the
forecast period, with speeds expected to remain under 8KT. There
is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms over the mountains
surrounding the Valley this afternoon, but very low probability in
any direct impacts from outflow at the terminal. VFR conditions
prevail with FEW-SCT clouds with bases at or above 12kft.
Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 18Z-03Z today,
reaching a high of 107 degrees this afternoon.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds across the
region will follow typical daily directional patterns with some
variability, with speeds expected to remain under 10KT. Exceptions
include KBIH in the northern Owens Valley, where a brief period
of gusty up-valley winds is expected late this afternoon through
early evening, and KDAG in the western Mojave Desert, where west-
southwesterly winds will briefly gust to around 20KT this evening
into tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
over the higher terrain, but the probability for outflow impacts
at any specific terminal remains low. VFR conditions will prevail
with FEW-SCT clouds at or above 10kft.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           TUE, AUG 25 WED, AUG 26 THU, AUG 27 FRI, AUG 28
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     111(2011)   109(2001)*  110(2017)*  110(2019)*
Bishop        103(2020)   103(2019)*  103(2019)*  103(2017)
Needles       119(1924)   122(1924)   120(1891)   116(2023)*
Daggett       111(1985)   111(2011)   111(2017)   111(2017)
Kingman       106(2020)   106(2020)*  107(2017)*  107(2009)
Desert Rock   107(1985)   106(2001)*  107(2017)   107(2017)
Death Valley  123(2011)   122(2017)*  124(1924)   120(2011)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      TUE, AUG 25 WED, AUG 26 THU, AUG 27 FRI, AUG 28
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     87(2020)    88(2020)*   87(2011)*   86(2019)*
Bishop        65(1988)    66(1988)    67(1970)    62(1970)
Needles       92(2020)*   93(2011)    93(2011)    94(2017)
Daggett       81(2003)*   82(1981)*   81(2011)*   82(2017)*
Kingman       78(2011)    79(1945)    79(2020)*   75(2019)*
Desert Rock   78(1998)*   78(1985)*   78(1995)*   77(2011)*
Death Valley  98(1991)*   98(1991)*   95(2011)*  100(2019)*

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Phillipson

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